Sirius XM Radio Turns a Corner, Upgrades Expected

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By Rick King -

Surprising investors – Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI), which hosts programming for Howard Stern, Rosie O’Donnell, Opie & Anthony, and Oprah Winfrey, anounced break-even earnings for the first time since the merger of Sirius and XM Radio this past year.  Wall Street had mainly expected a 2 cent loss and investors were waiting anxiously in the aisles this morning during it’s Q3 FY09 Conference Call.  Even through the difficult economic crisis of this past year, the company continues to show signs of continued growth as it improves its finances and minimizes operating costs each quarter.

The company ended its third quarter with 18.5 million on the subscriber side, partly due to growing initiatives within the company to exploit new revenue streams.  This past year the company has fielded a growing number of new products including its much heralded application for the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone and iPod Touch, as well as the recent anouncement of the new SkyDock satellite radio receiver which will interface with the iPhone and iPod Touch.  There is an XM Skydock application available in the “App” store which provides the main interface including song tagging for iTunes.  The SkyDock will play all Sirius XM Radio channels plus their “Best of” channles along with several channels unavailable via the company’s revamped internet streams.

This past quarter yielded an additional 102,000 subscribers over 2nd Quarter, although down slightly from 3rd Quarter 2008.  Revenue rose to 629 million and surpassed analyst expectations of around 600 million.  CEO Mel Karmazin gave guidance and seemed positive about the company’s prospects, and Sirius XM Radio expects significant growth in free cash flow, forecasting full-year adjusted income to increase by 20 percent or more for 2010.

A quick summary of this Q3 Conference Call’s high points:

1. Return to sub growth
2. Positive EBITDA
3. Guidance
4. No debt due
5. Satellite Capex minimal
6. ARPU going through the roof
7. Best revenue quarter ahead

Analysts expect several uprades in coming days as these 3rd Quarter numbers are fully absorbed by retail and institutional investors.  With the holiday season approaching quickly and an expected media blitz on the horizon – 4th Quarter will be watched closely as Sirius XM Radio moves into 2010.

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Disclosure: Long SIRI

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