By Relmor Demitrius -

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI), which is 40% owned by Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LCAPA), achieved something few companies in their industry, if any, did in 2009:

They came out of 2009 in better financial shape and returned to subscriber growth during one of the most difficult economic periods possible. 2009 was a troubling time for the newly merged radio companies.  Huge debt obligations were due, the economy was in shambles, and the auto industry wasn’t selling enough cars.

What a difference a few quarters can make.

The satellite radio company entered the year with 19 million subscribers.  After losing 500,000 subscribers in Q1 and Q2 combined, they regained 105,000 back during Q3, reversing the trend.  That leaves them with around 400,000 subs under what they started the year with as of Q3.

Let’s run the numbers and see what Q4 will probably look like:

October through December auto sales totaled around 2,593,000 for the United States.  Penetration rate of the company’s products in these vehicles was going to be in the high 50’s, according to Mel Karmazin, CEO of Sirius XM Satellite Radio. Im going to assume 58%.  By this figure they should be adding (from the OEM channel) around 1,503,940 new subscribers, while losing around 1,053,000 from deactivations (assuming a 1.9% churn rate, lower than last quarters, but higher than Q4 of 2008).  Im giving credence to improved economic conditions, but also still accounting for a supressed economy.  1.9% churn should work for this calculation.  During the last 3 quarters churn has been 2.2%, 2.0%, and 2.0% respectively.  Assuming 1.9% in a traditionally strong churn quarter is fully reasonable given the conditions. (more…)