By Relmor Demitrius
Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) starts off the week on a high note. Having once again broken the $1 mark and maintained it for three consecutive days now, leaving only 7 days remaining to comply with the 10 needed for NASDAQ’s minimum bid price rule requirement. Sirius XM had been issued a letter of non compliance, and a Staff Notification of Delisting a month ago now. They have a panel hearing on April 29th to request additional time to come into compliance. If that panel hearing ends up being necessary, ironically it would come on day 11 of being over $1, on this attempt to hold over $1 it is currently in. Coincidence or not, it would negate the need to ask for more time from an independent panel of business leaders and industry professionals. If this were to occur, Sirius XM might have one of the best days of the year coming on that day 11.
Any institutions waiting to buy in for the dollar threshold would most likely be given the green light at that point. Institutions that aren’t fortunate enough to be able to buy a stock under $2 or under $5 are going to be drooling over the lost opportunity on this one. Of course institutions who can might decide there is no better time to attempt one last low price purchase of this equity. If $1 is the new “low” and low point in anyone’s risk tolerance, traders might also pile in and use $1 as their benchmark price. If this stock then gains the momentum of swing traders, and we see shorts closing their positions who bet against the odds on this company, there could be another capitalization day similar to what occurred when this stock broke over .79 this year. It has never traded lower than that price since, hence to this date, under .80 on this equity might have been permanently capitalized.
There are definitely signs to look for and caution of course is still necessary with any stock trading this low, but signs of the “under $1 world” are slowly fading. The stock was a perfect trading vehicle. The trader world would love for this equity to never clear $1, and always be able to have sentiment shift on a stock under $1. This makes for easy trades, tons of volume, and massive volatility. A trader’s dream. Unfortunately for this culture, the short culture and the trader culture in this stock, the company keeps improving so dramatically, every day it stayed under $1 was another day more and more institutions and private investors were wondering why this stock is still so low, wanting to buy it and moving the stock up on demand.
There is still the pending word on what Liberty Media is doing that required a request for early termination from the FTC. Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LINTA) has filed some type of transaction request in regards to Sirius XM Radio. Liberty Capital (NASDAQ:LCAPA) is the tracking stock that houses Liberty’s 40% stake in the company through its Liberty Radio holding. There is a strong chance we may hear something this week on this issue as well.
The battle of two worlds. Under $1 and over $1. Trading stock or legitimate investment? Listing concerns versus trading and acting like a real stock from a strong company it represents. Who will ultimately win this fight? Stay tuned, the final rounds are coming.
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Long SIRI
Well written article. Another great article from the members of KOAT.
Nice read Rel. If the volume on the 7th was related to something Liberty is doing with SIRIUS, I would expect a 13d to be filed no later then this Wed…10 day requirement by SEC…My thinking at this point is that they were not buying…seemsw like we should know something though soon.
If Sirius regains compliance, and I think they will, and buying confidence is good how high do you think this stock could go this year? (In a perfect world.)
End of year, anywhere from 1.87 to 1.20. In a perfect world…. It would trade to full value, plus spec price, and future earnings…. So over $2. I dont think EV wise sirius is overvalued right now until over 2.50, $3. Thats pricing in a full auto recovery right now though. Still speculation on that.
I am waiting for the other shoe to drop. What will drive us back under a dollar this time? hedgies, shorting, another downgrade from another uninformed analyst, GS, global warming?
“It’s Always Something with SiriusXM”
I certainly prefer over a 1.00 pps for 10 days, and I think if that does not happen Nasdax will side with Mel and give SiriusXM the time it needs. Probably because of the volume SiriusXM represents to the Nasdax, and probably Mel’s promise to Nasdax that if he does not get the extention, and they force him to do a RS he will go to the NYSE.
Do the shorts alone have enough to drag the stock back down again? If so it will pretty much prove that they can control 15% to 20% of the share price at any given time when we are at these price levels.
Once over a $1.00 for ten days I agree with Relmor that we will see some fund activity. How much I am not sure, but it will help.
If we get the ten days, over $1.00 , then we can all look forward to the never ending Howard Stern debate. Would be great since SiriusXM was very good to HS if he came forward and inked a deal very soon. However, It really is not in his best interest to do that. I am sure his agent and lawyers will instruct him to drag it out as long as possible since it is in his best interest to do so. Of course if he does not sign it will be the end of the world for SiriusXM blah blah blah..I hope he stays but everyone is replaceable.
I will be very happy when the ten days and HS are behind us. What will it be then? Liberty’s John Malone putting on his guns and mask again and try to steal the rest of the company at the Sirius shareholders expense?…. God I hope not
imho
Relmor,
Nice job. I can only hope we make it for another 7 trading days. Sure would be nice to put to bed the manipulation of the news media with their fear mongering. Time will give us the answer in 7 more trading days. Also great news on the Goldman Sachs Fraud case.
Stay tuned for more charges against Goldman Sachs.
FY 2008 = Goldman Sachs made over $100 million a day ( 90 times )
FY 2009 = Goldman Sachs made over $100 million a day ( 131 Times )
FY 2010 1st QT. these facts come out tomorrow April 20th, 2010
I wonder how many days in 1st quarter?
I just want to repeat that again. That is OVER $100 million a day in profits by manipulating stock prices.
Can you write a great story on this and how the news media has not reported these numbers and how the news media has also covered up the Goldman Sachs computer programmer arrest that took place on July 3rd, 2009.
The other Goldman Sachs scandals need to be revealed. How Goldman Sachs manipulates stock prices by the use of secret software, and million dollar computers used by these computer programmers to manipulate stock prices to steal the wealth of business’s like Sirius XM Radio and also us individual investors.
This part of the Goldman Sachs scandal needs to be told. Hoping you will write a story on it. Perhaps these new charges towards Goldman Sachs, puts an end to the Siri stock price manipulation and we surpass the $1.00 mark for 10 straight days.
Richard Keane
http://www.SiriusNews.com
http://www.Twitter.com/StockShockmovie
I believe if we get to Day 7 or 8 around this level, then the funds & longs will just pile in and run this stock into the 1.20′s once they sense it will make it for the 10 days.
No Question. The long-planned and perfectly-engineered Mel Karamazin Share Price Recovery Program is in full effect–
This should be good.
Awesome article, Mr. Demetrius. Keep up the excellent work. Everything you do has that special flair– !~
Excellent article. My bet is that we stay above $1.00 and a short squeeze follows on the 9th or 10th day of compliance. Earnings around the corner. Two catalysts in less than 14 trading days. A trader’s dream…