Archive for July, 2010

4

Sirius XM Institutional Ownership Percentage Rises

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By Relmor Demitrius

 

With Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) set to report their 2nd quarter financial results in less than one week now, investors are going over numbers, looking at data, and trying to determine how much upside this stock may have.  Well, apparently the majority of its institutional holders think there is more upside to be gained here.  According to the NASDAQ.com website (home to where Sirius XM trades) their institutional holding percentage is now 22.2%, which is up by 2% from just a month ago. 

As the stock broke out of penny stock territory and was added to the Russell family of indexes earlier this year, investors have been looking for signs from “smart money” to see if this bullish move is just starting or it is time to sell out and book gains.  It is difficult to evaluate a company like Sirius XM and there are many opinions out there as to its true value.  So anytime you see institutions adding shares of your company, it is not a bad thing.  These shares usually are held longer and do not see as much float action as retail shares may.  Typically institutions take into consideration what stocks they buy with use of careful planning, painstaking fundamental analysis of the company, and timing proper entry positions.  This percentage isn’t even taking into account all the shares now off the board held by the Russell index and its shadow funds.  Those shares would not have been reported into this percentage as of yet.  It is a lagging count of ownership levels, but still can show trends and be useful in determining institutional sentiment over time. 

People debate how much institutional ownership is good for a stock.  Some people prefer stocks with high retail ownership, as they usually offer more volatility.  What percentage do you think is ideal for your trading/investment strategies in Sirius XM?

15

When Will Sirius XM Move The Next Level?

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By: Gino Lattarulo

siriWith Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) set to release earnings in about one week , the question that seems to be on the minds of the masses is: Will the results be enough to drive the stock to the next level of support and resistance or will it remain in it’s current trading range because everything is already priced in? Let’s talk about that for a bit.

I think it’s fair to say that ever since the stock action pushed through the $ 1.00 mark it has been about as exciting as watching a fly crawl up a drape. Every time it looked like something was going to make the price pop to the next level it just fizzled right back to that one dollar hard deck. There just hasn’t been any thrilling catalyst.  As usual, the exciting has become the norm.

12 years ago when you watched Mark McGuire smash a home run 1 out of every 10 at bats, it was exciting. But after awhile the fans and critics simply got used to the idea. It was just a given that he would hit a tape measure homer every three to four games and when it didn’t happen there was disappointment. ” Wow I wonder what’s wrong with Mark today”.  Never mind the fact that the man owns the lowest At Bats Per Home Run ratio in baseball history. It was just expected that he would perform this way. If, however, some obscure player from the Montreal Expos started spitting out dingers once every ten at bats, there would be pandemonium in Canada.

Stock performance is really no different.  Once a company sets a standard for their performance they have to continually ( and excitingly) exceed that performance to garner any lavish attention from Wall Street. Take APPLE (NASDAQ:AAPL) for example. Their recent earnings was effectively doubled over last year, and yes the stock did move up a bit, but blowing out earnings is so normal for this company that it really wasn’t huge news to Wall Street. They always want a bigger number than what is expected.Sirius is no exception either. Better than expected subscriber growth? nah….   Forward guidance of over a million subscribers?  nah…  That was yesterday’s excitement. Today’s climate not only dictates the ” What have you done for me lately” mentality, but the ” What will you do for me in the future?” mentality as well.

 So again, where will the catalyst come from? Earnings? Some fabulously statistical news event? Just like the Gulf oil spill, it’s all a game of hurry up and wait, politics, and posturing. Hey BP, how’s the clean up and restitution coming? Nah…

Peace


29

A History of Flash Trading as it pertains to Sirius XM (NASDAQ: SIRI) and Other Notably Manipulated Equities

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For much of Wall Street’s history, stock trading was pretty straightforward. Sellers and purchasers would meet on exchange floors and bargain until they struck a deal. However in 1998 things changed, and rather quickly as the S.E.C. authorized electronic exchanges to compete with marketplaces like the New York Stock Exchange. The intended outcome was to open markets to anyone with a desktop computer looking to invest cash and be in control of their own destiny to a degree.

However as new marketplaces continue to emerge such as the Edge exchange which recently got approval in March, the home desktop PC has been unable to keep pace with Wall Street’s computers and technology. Incredibly Powerful algorithms continuously execute millions of orders a second and can scan dozens of public and private markets continuously and simultaneously. These algorithms can spot trends in less than the blink of an eye; long before the average investor, quickly and deliberately changing orders and strategies within milliseconds for institutions and funds.

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11

Sirius XM 2nd Quarter Earnings Preview: Part 3

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SatRadioBy Relmor Demitrius

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) will be reporting their 2nd quarter results in a conference call on Wednesday, August 4th.  In anticipation of this event I have previously released 2 portions of a 3 part preview of the upcoming earnings release.  In the first part I went over subscriber numbers, in the second part I went over revenue and ARPU, and in the 3rd part I will now discuss costs, estimated EBITDA, free cash flow, and earnings estimates.

It was determined that ARPU (average revenue per unit (subscriber)) would come in around 11.52, a small increase from Q1 of 2010 and a significant jump from Q2 of 2009, which was before royalty revenues were introduced.  Also it was determined overall revenue would come in at around $697 million.  Here are some of the cost line items.

There are a few line items that are substantial amounts and can vary greatly from quarter to quarter.  One of these is subscriber acquisition costs.  This is the amount it costs Sirius XM to add their new promotional subscribers for the quarter.  It is a cost arrived from using total activations and the SAC (subscriber acquisition costs) metric Sirius XM reports quarterly.  This is the average cost to acquire a new subscriber.  Due to an increase in auto sales for Q2 and a lower churn percentage this number will come in higher than in Q1. 

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7

Citigroup (NYSE: C) Continues Walking the Green Mile to Sustained Profitability

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Last week, Citigroup (NYSE:C) showed a net profit of $2.7 billion, or 9 cents per share when they announced Q2 results, which was down from the 49 cents per share profit of Q1. Citigroup revenue was $22.1bn, down $3.4billion from Q1 2010. Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit, was happy with what he termed ‘solid’ figures for the latest quarter. Compared with same period last year numbers, consumer banking revenue rose 9% in Latin America and 10% in Asia, more than offsetting declines of 3% in North America and 5% in the Europe-Middle East-Africa region. On a global basis, consumer banking revenue rose 2% from a year earlier, to $8.03 billion.  Trends were similar for transaction services, with revenue rising 5% in Latin America and 6% in Asia and falling 3% in North America and 1% in the Europe-Middle East-Africa region.

With that in mind;  Citigroup continues walking the green mile to sustained profitability this quarter as the Treasury Department announced it will sell 1.5 billion more shares of Citigroup (NYSE: C) stock over the next couple of months.  This is the third tranche sale in the government’s Citigroup bailout fund recovery effort.  The proceeds are part of the repayment of funds from Citigroup’s portion of the $700 billion financial bailout.  The third tranche of Citigroup stock sales will start immediately and be completed by Sept. 30, according to a spokesperson at the Treasury.

The government has already sold 2.6 billion shares for $10.5 billion in the first 2 tranche sales over the course of the last 2 fiscal quarters.  Citigroup originally received $45 billion in taxpayer funds through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).  Of the $45 billion, $25 billion was converted to a government-ownership stake through shares of common stock  with Treasury receiving 7.7 billion shares at a share price of $3.25.  At that time, the stake equated to 27 percent of the company.  Citigroup repaid the $20 billion unconverted portion of the loan last December.  Citigroup stock over the past 52 weeks has ranged in price from a low of $2.56 to a high of $5.43.

The Treasury Department has stated its intentions to sell its entire stake in Citigroup by the end of this year.  The first tranche of sales, covering 1.5 billion shares, concluded in May.  The second, which covered another 1.1 billion shares, ended recently after beginning in June.  Once those shares are all sold, I would expect some sort of share repurchase by the company, or perhaps a reverse split to reduce the bloated share count.

Though heavily criticized, and rightly so for bailing out these huge financial institutions, it is nice to know that at least there will be a return on the Citigroup investment by the government when all is said and done that can be used to pay off some of the deficit it created.  Simple math shows at least a 10 billion dollar increase in share value at an average price of $4.00 dollars.

It is also good to see Citigroup continuing its course of return to a core banking institution.  The company continues to re- evaluate its assets and look for buyers for assets deemed expendable by Citigroup in its return to focusing on its core businesses.  Cautious optimism is the thought also with non US markets continuing to show growth for the company, particularly Latin America and Asia. While the growth has been good in those regions, it is still on fragile footing with global economic concerns still prevailing.  Citigroup also is beginning to see real reductions in operational costs from strategies it implemented over the past decade or so of severing long time employees and management and bringing in less experienced and less expensive personnel to replace them.  The initial cost of those severance packages may have been worth it considering the state the company found itself in, in late 2008 and into 2009.  One has to question the decision though as there is no substitute for experience in the highly competitive Banking business.  Overall, Citigroup is getting healthier as a company as it trims the excess fat, sells off non essential assets and toxic debt is painstakingly removed from its ledger. Citigroup is on an upward trajectory if it continues to execute its plan.

Disclosure: No position in C at this time