By: Gino Lattarulo
With Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) set to release earnings in about one week , the question that seems to be on the minds of the masses is: Will the results be enough to drive the stock to the next level of support and resistance or will it remain in it’s current trading range because everything is already priced in? Let’s talk about that for a bit.
I think it’s fair to say that ever since the stock action pushed through the $ 1.00 mark it has been about as exciting as watching a fly crawl up a drape. Every time it looked like something was going to make the price pop to the next level it just fizzled right back to that one dollar hard deck. There just hasn’t been any thrilling catalyst. As usual, the exciting has become the norm.
12 years ago when you watched Mark McGuire smash a home run 1 out of every 10 at bats, it was exciting. But after awhile the fans and critics simply got used to the idea. It was just a given that he would hit a tape measure homer every three to four games and when it didn’t happen there was disappointment. ” Wow I wonder what’s wrong with Mark today”. Never mind the fact that the man owns the lowest At Bats Per Home Run ratio in baseball history. It was just expected that he would perform this way. If, however, some obscure player from the Montreal Expos started spitting out dingers once every ten at bats, there would be pandemonium in Canada.
Stock performance is really no different. Once a company sets a standard for their performance they have to continually ( and excitingly) exceed that performance to garner any lavish attention from Wall Street. Take APPLE (NASDAQ:AAPL) for example. Their recent earnings was effectively doubled over last year, and yes the stock did move up a bit, but blowing out earnings is so normal for this company that it really wasn’t huge news to Wall Street. They always want a bigger number than what is expected.Sirius is no exception either. Better than expected subscriber growth? nah…. Forward guidance of over a million subscribers? nah… That was yesterday’s excitement. Today’s climate not only dictates the ” What have you done for me lately” mentality, but the ” What will you do for me in the future?” mentality as well.
So again, where will the catalyst come from? Earnings? Some fabulously statistical news event? Just like the Gulf oil spill, it’s all a game of hurry up and wait, politics, and posturing. Hey BP, how’s the clean up and restitution coming? Nah…
Peace
this is manipulation – has nothing to do with siri fundamentals – big money, big media is playing games and collecting shares ….. well, i guess that has everything to do with siri fundamentals …in the sense that they are growing so rapidly that it is subversevly being accumulated just as ford was a year ago, befor its big run
Sirius is a good stock with long term potential. perhaps it’s a played stock with all the games that savoy insider types that know how to play a stock like this to gain short term $$ by understanding charts and movements to short it in a timely manner. I blame company management, and if they really wanted to could end the bold manipulation of this stock.
Pertaining to your article your right , and I don’t see this company having stellar quarters every quarter. Really it may take a major announcement that Sirius is teaming up with a partner to open up the European market and fill the hole that World Space left for Wall Street to pay attention. I really don’t believe as some do that Howard Stern holds that much weight to swing this stock ether way. I think Sirius has grown too much for that to be a Sirius deal breaker. If your long in this stock all you can do is wait it out , just like any company reducing debt, increasing income on a consistent bases will speak volumes to the vale of this investment. Ron and Long
Gino:
I tend to agree with your Mark McGuire/Apple analogy regarding people’s tendency to be disappointed by consistently good performance over time. The difference between Mark McGuire, Apple and Sirius; however, is that McGuire was considered the best home run hitter of his era if not all-time, Apple’s stock has climbed from below $50 to where it is today (roughly $260), and Sirius is still at a dollar. Mark McGuire did not get treated like Sirius. If people said about Mark McGuire, “I don’t care that he hits home runs on a daily basis, he still sucks and is only worth a dollar,” then perhaps I would agree with your analogy. At some point, the past performance was priced into both McGuire and Apple, so when they did not significantly improve upon their performance, there was no reason to elevate their stock. I hope that Sirius one day has the same problem as Mr. McGuire and Apple.
Great reply Travis and some good points…but to your point Siri already has Stern (I mean really, where else would he go) so isn’t that already priced in as you say? They have had him and still the stock languishes. Without him it is dead.
The Expos don’t exist anymore.
THANK YOU J!!!!!!
He led in with a great baseball analogy then killed it completely with that Montreal Expos statement. Ironically, the Washington Nationals (ex Montreal Expos) kinda have that going for themselves already with their new pitching phenom. He sells out every game.
you beat me to it
Anyone else raise an eye to the fact that the example used was McGuire? Possibly the most juiced player to have ever achieved anything? Strange how the stock hovers right around the mark that saves it from delisting. Any thought that the manipulation of the stock comes from within? Malone and Mel are definitely in cahoots to keep the prove down until the company goes private.
keep the price down
McGwire. Mark McGwire.
Did steroids. Roger Maris is a real record breaker and athlete.
i would like to see howards 500 millions go to developing the european market instead …. he was a useful crutch …. siri can stand on its own (to further the analogy) this week should be fun – there is no doubt serius is growning very healthy, becoming the standard in auto, and i think we are watching its spreading, steam-rolling into hand-held
RE: J says:
July 29, 2010 at 9:54 AM
The Expos don’t exist anymore.
Hahaha… The Expos moved to Washington and became the Washington Nationals about 6 years ago. But yes, if any of our teams in Toronto could do anything to make the playoffs, we’d be ecstatic. :p
Guys, I was referring to The Expos in 1998 when Mac and Sosa were playing. I guess I should have clarified though.
Ohhh, so Gino thats why you said “12 years ago…” Yeah we’re all paying attention…