Archive for September, 2010

2

Relmor’s Pick of the Week: Alcoa Inc.

By
king1
– September 27, 2010
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By Relmor Demitrius -

Shares of Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) had been flat going into last week until a late week market rally had sent them spiking higher.  Is there more upside going into the last week of September for Alcoa?  I believe there is.

Since May, shares of Alcoa have been trying to get back and over the $12 mark.  Last week this event finally occurred.  This had been a strong resistance line, as you can see by the chart, and clearing it with a break and close over that $12 line is significant.  This is the first time this has happened since May, and it presents a bullish scenario for the equity going into this week.  I see this stock lagging the main market momentum a bit, and a 200 day moving average test I believe is in the works very shortly.  As many stocks have already had their test on the 200 day or already have broken over it, I feel Alcoa isn’t far off their own test of this mark as well.  Maybe not this week, but the stock should gravitate now towards this target.  The 200 day moving average right now is sitting at $12.71.  Use $12 as a support price, and be wary under that price for now.

I am not sure how this test will go at this point, but a fundamental review of the equity at that time might be in order.  Sentiment is also something one should consider when stocks are testing major resistance levels.  Also main market conditions are vital as well.

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4

Sirius XM Set To Add Subscribers Again in 3rd Quarter

By
king1
– September 24, 2010
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By Relmor Demitrius

SatRadio

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) is set to release their Q3 subscriber net additions as early as next week.  Mel Karmazin (CEO of Sirius XM Radio) likes to let investors know how they faired in regards to subscriber numbers as close to the end of the quarter as possible, because these numbers are known relatively quickly once the quarter is closing.  Due to improving auto sales and improving economic conditions, Sirius XM has been steadily adding subscribers since Q3 of 2009.

Sirius XM added 583,000 in the second quarter of 2010.  As long as the Seasonally Adjusted Automobile Rate comes in over 11 million a year, Mel Karmazin has stated that the company will be able to add subscribers with current metrics.  As of today, the latest estimate of  SAAR is coming in around 11.6 million area, some have it a bit higher, others a bit lower.  Knowing this, let us look at what the subscriber net additions will be like for the company in Q3.

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7

Sirius XM’s Chart Breaks Out

By
Gino Lattarulo
– September 22, 2010
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By: Gino Lattarulo

On Sept 8th the stock action for Sirus XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) broke out of the triangle pattern it had been forming since early May of this year.  The stock gained further strength out of the pattern when Mel Karmazin re-affirmed 2010 guidance of revenue around the $2.8 billion mark.

siri

After a consolidation period of  four plus months we can see on the daily chart where it broke upward through the trend line at approximately $1.02. Coincidentally this is the same point in which it broke through the ever important 50 day Moving Average. Usually after this type of pattern breakout a stock’s price action will re-test the trend line before continuing upward. We can see in the chart that this did not happen. The price moved sideways in a 4 day continuation pattern before continuing its upward movement. It is important to note that although the volume did not spike  dramatically it has not declined from its average and Relative Strength has remained close to or above the 50 mark.  January 2011 call options activity is seeing some action at the $ 1.50  strike and interestingly enough the $2.00 strike seems to be waking up a bit with some respectable volume.  Open interest for that $2.00 strike is currently around 23,000 . This is not overly significant because there could be bears out there looking for insurance policies but in any case it does show some bullish sentiment.

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0

Relmor’s Pick of the Week: Barrick Gold Corporation

By
king1
– September 20, 2010
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By Relmor Demitrius

 

Gold set a new record high last week and appears strong over night in Asian Market trading.  As the dollar is showing weakness of late, main markets holding strong and moving up, I expect Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX) to possibly see some strength heading into this week.

Even though this stock has struggled a bit of late, it has been basing higher and is still near its 52 week high of $48.02 achieved back on 12/02/09.  I think this recent pullback was a nice buying opportunity.  I think this stock should stay over the $45.20 area this week, and I would be bearish if it broke this line.  This stock should test higher this week.  Looking at the chart we can see rising 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages, which is bullish.  The 5 is also crossing above the 20 day moving average line, which is also considered bullish.  The MACD line is also, as show, is attempting to bullish cross as well.  Stochastic are also showing an already achieved bullish crossover on that indicator. 

Last week I mentioned it might be a good time to buy Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT) and that it could hit around $8.40 a share.  Last week Motorola began the week at $7.92 and ended the week at $8.38,going as high as $8.49.9.  From close on Friday to close on Friday was a gain of around 5%.  Not a bad trade especially considering an even higher sell was available. 

For up to date financial commentary, fundamental analysis, and forum discussions on all investment and trades, visit www.kingofalltrades.com.  Also follow my previously mentioned Picks’s of the Week there as well.

ABX_Chart_1ABX_Chart_2

 

 

 

 

Disclosure:  No Position MOT or ABX

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29

Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) Launch of XM 5 Starts Major Synergy Impact on Bottom Line

By
Andrew Montero
– September 20, 2010
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Mel Karmazin

Mel Karmazin

With the launch of XM 5 currently scheduled for October 14th
(http://www.satelliteonthenet.co.uk/index.php/2010)
it is important to note that the major synergies from the merger of Sirius and XM are about to be revealed and begin impacting the bottom line significantly.  In Sirius XMs (Nasdaq:SIRI) filings with the FCC located here; (http://licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/) they reveal that XM 5, call sign S2786, is capable of broadcasting in the 2320 to 2345 MHz (space to earth) and 7025 to 7075 MHz (earth to space) frequency bands.  It also reveals that XM 5 is an in orbit spare for the XM 3 and 4 space stations as well as the Sirius FM 1, 2, 3 and 5 space stations.  This is vital and extremely relevant information and is a precursor to what will eventually become of the Sirius XM constellation of satellites.

The LOA for the FM 6 (call sign S2812) launch next year also has rather important news regarding the monetization of the synergies from the merger.  It states the following in the attachment menu under technical description:

“When FM-6 becomes operational in early 2012, the NGO satellites will be 12 years old.  In the years following, it is expected that the NGO satellites will be retired and Sirius XM will then transition to a two geostationary satellite constellation by relocating FM-5 from its current orbital location of 96.0 degrees West Longitude to a location close to 85.0 degrees West Longitude.  This GEO constellation configuration is identical to the legacy XM constellation, thereby facilitating future integration of the XM satellites’ architecture with the legacy Sirius architecture.  The subject satellite would then operate at the 115.2 degrees West Longitude orbital location to serve Sirius XM subscribers in the continental United States (CONUS – including its offshore waters) and Sirius XM Canada’s subscribers in Canada using a single transponder at either of two selectable frequencies.  The transmissions from the satellite will be compatible with the current and next generation of Sirius XM radios.”

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