Banks Archive

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Tired of Oil Speculation Driving Irrational Pricing?

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Once again, oil speculators are bullying prices higher based largely on fear and not reality.  When does it stop?  There needs to be an investigation and resulting punishment that is appropriate for the harm being done to multiple economies all in the name of deriving profits off largely overblown risk to current events.

Previous investigations have always been followed by more evenly tempered speculation, yet time and again prices get ratcheted up considerably.  All this constant cycle does is hurt consumers while a select few make unconscionable profits and drive irrational fear whenever and wherever they can. It clearly has become a game to some in the markets, which culminated in the financial collapse of several iconic institutions in 2008.  Libyan Oil does not come to the United States!  

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Bank of America Shares Basing For Upswing in Price?

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By Relmor Demitrius

There are certain times in a stocks trading cycle where you start thinking about buying on pullbacks, expecting a nice rally to come.  As with shares of Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), this appears to be one of those times.  The stock has recently pulled back from its near term high of $15.31 and indicators are once again turning neutral to bullish.  Let us take a look at the chart posted below.

I have posted the MACD indicator.  It is now going from down to neutral, a sign a stock is stabilizing.  The weekly MACD has already been and still is bullish.  Also, it has been 5 days now since on this current retrace the stock has received a new low.  Flat price trading is indication of accumulation and a big move up or down would be expected. 

Down?  Not likely looking at the general trend medium term.  Stock market is making new 52 week highs almost weekly now and certain fundamental aspects of the banking industry have already bottomed a long time ago now. 

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7

Citigroup (NYSE: C) Continues Walking the Green Mile to Sustained Profitability

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Last week, Citigroup (NYSE:C) showed a net profit of $2.7 billion, or 9 cents per share when they announced Q2 results, which was down from the 49 cents per share profit of Q1. Citigroup revenue was $22.1bn, down $3.4billion from Q1 2010. Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit, was happy with what he termed ‘solid’ figures for the latest quarter. Compared with same period last year numbers, consumer banking revenue rose 9% in Latin America and 10% in Asia, more than offsetting declines of 3% in North America and 5% in the Europe-Middle East-Africa region. On a global basis, consumer banking revenue rose 2% from a year earlier, to $8.03 billion.  Trends were similar for transaction services, with revenue rising 5% in Latin America and 6% in Asia and falling 3% in North America and 1% in the Europe-Middle East-Africa region.

With that in mind;  Citigroup continues walking the green mile to sustained profitability this quarter as the Treasury Department announced it will sell 1.5 billion more shares of Citigroup (NYSE: C) stock over the next couple of months.  This is the third tranche sale in the government’s Citigroup bailout fund recovery effort.  The proceeds are part of the repayment of funds from Citigroup’s portion of the $700 billion financial bailout.  The third tranche of Citigroup stock sales will start immediately and be completed by Sept. 30, according to a spokesperson at the Treasury.

The government has already sold 2.6 billion shares for $10.5 billion in the first 2 tranche sales over the course of the last 2 fiscal quarters.  Citigroup originally received $45 billion in taxpayer funds through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).  Of the $45 billion, $25 billion was converted to a government-ownership stake through shares of common stock  with Treasury receiving 7.7 billion shares at a share price of $3.25.  At that time, the stake equated to 27 percent of the company.  Citigroup repaid the $20 billion unconverted portion of the loan last December.  Citigroup stock over the past 52 weeks has ranged in price from a low of $2.56 to a high of $5.43.

The Treasury Department has stated its intentions to sell its entire stake in Citigroup by the end of this year.  The first tranche of sales, covering 1.5 billion shares, concluded in May.  The second, which covered another 1.1 billion shares, ended recently after beginning in June.  Once those shares are all sold, I would expect some sort of share repurchase by the company, or perhaps a reverse split to reduce the bloated share count.

Though heavily criticized, and rightly so for bailing out these huge financial institutions, it is nice to know that at least there will be a return on the Citigroup investment by the government when all is said and done that can be used to pay off some of the deficit it created.  Simple math shows at least a 10 billion dollar increase in share value at an average price of $4.00 dollars.

It is also good to see Citigroup continuing its course of return to a core banking institution.  The company continues to re- evaluate its assets and look for buyers for assets deemed expendable by Citigroup in its return to focusing on its core businesses.  Cautious optimism is the thought also with non US markets continuing to show growth for the company, particularly Latin America and Asia. While the growth has been good in those regions, it is still on fragile footing with global economic concerns still prevailing.  Citigroup also is beginning to see real reductions in operational costs from strategies it implemented over the past decade or so of severing long time employees and management and bringing in less experienced and less expensive personnel to replace them.  The initial cost of those severance packages may have been worth it considering the state the company found itself in, in late 2008 and into 2009.  One has to question the decision though as there is no substitute for experience in the highly competitive Banking business.  Overall, Citigroup is getting healthier as a company as it trims the excess fat, sells off non essential assets and toxic debt is painstakingly removed from its ledger. Citigroup is on an upward trajectory if it continues to execute its plan.

Disclosure: No position in C at this time

0

China Agrees To Allow Movement on the Yuan

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yuanBy Relmor Demitrius

 

On Saturday it was announced that China had finally agreed to allow a revaluing of the Yuan, which is pegged to the dollar, to allow for greater appreciation of the currency.  This has been long sought after by the world economies who have complained for years China enjoys an artificially depreciated currency compared to the major global currencies such as the Yen, the U.S. Dollar, and the Euro.

China uses their currency trade surplus to buy foreign currencies, hence artificially making that currency stronger.  China enjoys a trade surplus, which is a foreign term to American investors who have long dealt with the term trade deficit here.  Basically China makes more on what they export than on what they buy as imports.  This is slowly changing however, but for now remains true.  China is now a net importer of oil, a sign this dynamic of China may be slowly changing.

Since China has extra money, they use it to buy other currencies keeping those currencies stronger compared to the Yuan.  This keeps Chinese exports cheap in comparison to other economies.

Since the Yuan is pegged to the dollar, any depreciation in the U.S. currency would cause the Yuan to stay in a relative “always cheap” balance, as the ratio now is around 6 to 1, meaning 6 Yuan per dollar.  Basically no matter what we do to deprecate our currency, the Yuan will always be cheap.  This new measure for the Chinese banking system will now allow for the possibility of that ratio to come down, hence making our products cheaper in China, and theirs more expensive here.  This will be an advantage to our economy.  Futures markets, the dollar index, and oil are responding to these moves in early morning trading.  Short term the effect will be hard to guess, but long term this move is beneficial.  Ironically Chinese purchasing of our treasuries allows us to keep being able to purchase Chinese goods, as their economy is 30% reliant on sales to the United States.  So not only does China buy our debt, they buy our currency as well.  This complex and bizarre cyclical relationship with China will continue for years to come, and looks like China might finally be bowing to world pressure.  When your the fastest growing large economy in the world, and the world needs to buy your products in order for your country to survive, its best not to cause your customers to go broke.

 

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6

Citigroup (NYSE:C) is a Diamond in The Rough

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Citigroup (NYSE:C) is slowly ascending once again, which is interesting given Citigroup was recently mentioned, along with Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB), as being among a group of financial institutions that shed debt just before quarter’s end to disguise levels of risk. The companies have been lowering their net borrowing in the repo market by an average of 41% at the end of each of the last 10 quarters, according to Fed Reserve data. This points out the systemic issues that have yet to be fully addressed in the Banking industry; as extensive use of repos was what allowed Lehman to improve its risk appearance quarter after quarter before that firm was forced into bankruptcy in September of 2008.

An upgrade from Oppenheimer in which they raised their outlook on Citigroup to outperform may also have contributed to the sudden momentum in Citigroup shares. Oppenheimer sees Citigroup shares trading below book value of $4.09 or so. Reducing short term borrowing ahead of the end of a quarter does not appear to be illegal at present, but the Securities and Exchange Commission is reviewing and considering new rules that would require increased disclosure of such practices, according to a recent report in the Wall Street Journal.  The repurchase market, more commonly known as the repo market; where banks put up securities as collateral to get quick access to funds, is one of the riskiest ways to borrowing because it is so short term. If sudden panic were created for some reason and markets seized up, banks that rely too heavily on this particular market transaction could suddenly find themselves in a funding crisis, such as what happened with Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers during the 2008 financial market collapse. Citigroup stock may also be rising from a report in the Financial Times that said that the Qatar Investment Authority is strongly considering buying some of the U.S. Treasury’s 27% stake in Citigroup.

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