DTV Archive

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Sirius XM Radio Investor Conference, Las Vegas, Summer 2012

Rick King -

Many of our readers have been interested in a larger gathering than the King of All Trades Team hosted this year.  Out of respect for the demand exhibited so far, King of All Trades LLC will establish the first ever Sirius XM Radio Investors Conference in Summer 2012 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Rick King -

Many of our readers have been interested in a larger gathering than the King of All Trades Team hosted this year.  Out of respect for the demand exhibited so far, King of All Trades LLC will establish the first ever KOAT Sirius XM Radio Investors Conference in Summer 2012 in Las Vegas, Nevada.  So whether you have been an investor for several years, or are new to the satellite media frenzy, you will have an opportunity to meet many of the market analysts, writers, producers, show hosts, and executives who have been at the forefront of the Sirius XM Radio story since well before the merger timeframe.  Join kingofalltrades.com today for more information, as well as insightful analysis of the markets and where our economy is headed.  Will our economy turn around in time?  Will unemployment finally reverse course?  Come join in the discussion today with hundreds of other readers anxious to tell their side of the story during one of the worst economic periods in our nation’s history.

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Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) Major Synergies Just Starting

As Sirius XM prepares for the 4th quarter launch of FM 6; the last satellite launch scheduled for several years, it is important to note that the true impact of the merger of Sirius and XM into one company is only recently now truly going to impact the bottom line. The start of major synergy impacts began with the launch of XM 5, which can broadcast both Sirius and XM signals and is the new “spare” satellite for the company.  After the launch of FM 6 there will be no satellite launches until 2017 or so at the earliest according to the company. This will begin to impact quarterly revenue in a positive way starting in fiscal Q1 2012 most likely. The launch expenses for FM 6 likely will hit in Q4 this year when the satellite is launched, currently the launch is scheduled for mid October.

By Andy Montero -

As Sirius XM prepares for the 4th quarter launch of FM 6; the last satellite launch scheduled for several years, it is important to note that the true impact of the merger of both Sirius and XM into one company is only recently now truly going to impact the bottom line. The start of major synergy impacts began with the launch of XM 5, which can broadcast both Sirius and XM signals and is the new “spare” satellite for the company.  After the launch of FM 6 there will be no satellite launches until 2017 or so at the earliest according to the company. This will begin to impact quarterly revenue in a positive way starting in fiscal Q1 2012 most likely. The launch expenses for FM 6 likely will hit in Q4 this year when the satellite is launched, currently the launch is scheduled for mid October.

The legacy Sirius infrastructure will remain in operation for several years to ensure legacy equipment is still functioning for subscribers, but eventually the current NGSO satellites will be de-orbited.  Sirius XM will need less satellites going forward, which will mean less expenses and more revenue to the bottom line. In the future it appears Sirius XM will require no more than 3 or 4 satellites to cover North America, which is quite a savings compared to the two separate companies. Additionally, the satellite repeater network will be reduced and the satellite earth stations necessary for operations will likely be reduced. Bear in mind this is Sirius XM synergies for itself only; should Sirius XM and say Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) and or DirecTv (NASDAQ:DTV) find some synergies in operations, well then all three companies would experience some benefits and their stock holders would see the results. Additionally, as newer satellites are launched with much more capacity and capability increases Sirius XM can look to existing satellites to expand through 3rd party content distribution lanes.

The merged internet player is also a cost saver as there are not 2 separate internet radio services needed. The sound quality of both the satellite version and internet version of the service is much improved compared to a year or two ago. Sirius XM has held their cards close to the vest and rightfully so after all the difficulties the company has endured. Anticipation for Sirius XM 2.0 is growing and the company needs to present some unexpected capabilities surrounding all the hoopla. Record and replay just won’t cut it in my opinion. Sirius XM may have some information on 2.0 in the upcoming conference call since we are currently in fiscal Q3 and 2.0 is slated for retail release in Q4. Overall, there are some very positive developments for the bottom line on the horizon. The company is still growing and hopefully will ensure it continues to do so even as the economy is still fragile. Sirius XM has plenty of room for more improvements regarding metrics such as churn which we all would like to see reduced some more, and even self pay sub numbers, which I feel as many others must remain constant at a minimum or increase, even if just by a small number. As the Q2 conference call was announced yesterday as August 2nd, it will not be long now to see what kind of performance the company has had thru June 30th. How do you see the results for the 2nd Quarter? Let us know.

 

Disclosure; Long SIRI, no position in DISH or DTV

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Sirius XM and Others Benefitting From Increasing Value of Spectrum Ownership

Sirius XM Radio purchased spectrum in the 2320 MHz to 2345 MHz range at FCC auction over 12 years ago for $170 million dollars combined and subsequently poured billions of dollars into infrastructure, content and management over the ensuing years. Sirius XM, still a fledgling company as a combined entity, only recently reported their first ever consecutive profitable quarters. Several years after Sirius XM Satellite radio purchased their spectrum licenses and had started building out their infrastructure, the FCC auctioned off another section of spectrum which bookends the spectrum belonging to Sirius and XM in the 2305-2320 MHz and the 2345-2360 MHz ranges

By Andy Montero

Sirius XM Radio purchased spectrum in the 2320 MHz to 2345 MHz range at FCC auction over 12 years ago for $170 million dollars combined and subsequently poured billions of dollars into infrastructure, content and management over the ensuing years. Sirius XM, still a fledgling company as a combined entity, only recently reported their first ever consecutive profitable quarters. Several years after Sirius XM Satellite radio purchased their spectrum licenses and had started building out their infrastructure, the FCC auctioned off another section of spectrum which bookends the spectrum belonging to Sirius and XM in the 2305-2320 MHz and the 2345-2360 MHz ranges.

At the onset of this particular auction, there were rules with regard to this particular segment of spectrum which were quite clear in representing that no interference would be permitted with the Sirius and XM spectrum already being developed and deployed for consumers. The FCC unequivocally made sure it was known that protecting Satellite Radio would make mobile operations in the spectrum that was being auctioned most likely difficult, and worse case technologically unfeasible.

Even with that knowledge companies still submitted their bids for the licenses in the spectrum auction. As a result, the entire purchase price for WCS spectrum that was auctioned in those blocks was only $14 million dollars. This block of spectrum is 5MHz larger than the SDARS spectrum and sold at auction for $154 million less than the SDARS spectrum was sold for in the 1990s. The only plausible explanation for this is due to the restrictions placed on that spectrum at the time of auction. The companies who purchased this spectrum knew ahead of time and purchased it in any event due to growing demand in hopes of being able to utilize it at some point.

Fast forward and more recently the Federal Communications Commission has been loosening restrictions on spectrum in order to minimize the impact of a lack of available spectrum and maximize the usage of existing spectrum. The spectrum held by DBSD and TerreStar, which currently require a satellite component to the service was apparently part of that loosening of restrictions. Rules regarding spectrum use and ownership are being changed. With the loosening of some previous restrictions regarding spectrum use it will make available and owned spectrum more valuable to companies like Liberty, Sirius XM, Intelsat, Dish and Echostar as well as other entities. It is part of a recent strategy by the FCC to enable owners to make more services available through leveraging of limited available spectrum. The agency has been slowly loosening restrictions on Mobile Satellite Spectrum (MSS) since a couple of years ago.

The S-band licenses, which TerreStar and DBSD hold, are among the first to be less restricted. Depending on the final outcome of coming modifications to spectrum usage, each band of spectrum could be worth more than $3 billion.

The move to scoop up spectrum by Dish Networks’ Ergen has been raising eyebrows in the media space. Ergen spoke about spectrum value not long ago, in generic terms. EchoStar paid over $700 million just for wireless licenses alone in a 2008 government auction. Ergen has made several comments similar to these he uttered at a conference call “We think spectrum has value, and then if you can do something with it strategically, it can have more value.” In recent months it has become very apparent that Ergen does not mince words. Dish Networks’ bid for DBSD seems to indicate he’s not just buying spectrum of the cuff to flip it. Dish significantly upped its winning bid from $1 billion to $1.5 billion for DBSD. You would have to believe Ergen plans to do something significant with this acquisition in the near future if he was willing to increase his purchase bid by 50%.

Is Ergen really willing to spend billions to build his own wireless network? Is it possible he might pool the associated licenses in a partnership enterprise with an existing carrier or sell them outright? The licenses that DBSD happens to have ownership stake in cover what the FCC calls mobile satellite spectrum and require a satellite component in their use and operation. Interpret that as you will, but it is no coincidence that  Ergen has been acquiring assets or has bid on assets through Dish Netwrok and Echostar over the course of the last 9 to 12 months specifically and over several years time has also been waiting on regulatory body decision making regarding plans that have been years in the making.

Disclosure: Long SIRI

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The Dawn of a New Media Era as Defined by Liberty’s John Malone and Sirius XM’s Mel Karmazin

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By Rick King -a_sunrise_over_earth

Every few generations our culture finds new ways to define itself. Usually there is no stronger indicator of culture’s shifting winds than the music a generation listens to. The method in which a generation listens to its music defines it as well. Is it possible we are in the midst of exactly that? Another media revolution of transformation in the winds, from terrestrial radio and television broadcasters to satellite media?

The current population wants access to information everywhere and on demand.  Generation “Unlimited” has no concept of limitation.  They live in a world where information of every type is available at the speed of an electron in more forms than they can count.  Information and how it is channeled to a user permeates every aspect of business.  AM and FM Radio don’t work everywhere geographically so it’s fading.  Same thing for television, initially change came in the form of cable and now with continuing dominance by satellite media.

How many people still remember the world of no television?  Black and White television broadcast?  The days when AM radio was the mainstay of the American living room?  In every single instance of such change, critics denied the very possibility it could happen.  Emotions have always  run especially deep in American society when it comes to our music and how we listen to it.

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Tivo Poised For Another Price Spike

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Tivo (TIVO) has recently blown the doors off of its price action, rising almost 70 percent last week after the federal appeals court upheld a contempt ruling against EchoStar (SATS) and Dish Network (DISH) for continual patent infringement. All of this isn’t exactly stunning news of course but it does lend itself to some interesting possibilities from Tivo in the future.

First let me say that I became a Tivo user because I was sick of paying $200.00 a month to Time Warner Cable (TWC) for the privilege of Pay Per View and receiving 500 channels that were never  utilized.   I canceled everything but Road Runner, bought the Tivo box  and signed up for Netflix (NFLX) so I can stream movies to it, and finally installed an HD antennae ($50.00) to get the local networks. Presto, $ 200.00 per month became $ 75.00 per month.  OK, so I will miss Bloomberg and CNBC but  not enough to shell out an additional $125.00.  I’m not Jonesing for Cramer that badly, especially when I can get those channels for free on the internet.  I can also can live without college wrestling, The Knitting Channel,  or “Stuff TV”, whatever the hell that is.  You gotta love the technological revolution that is available to cheapskates.

I digress..

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