Futures trading Archive

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Bullish Opportunity Knocking

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By Andrew Montero

As we start to move into the typically bearish cycle of the
financial markets, it is imperative to remind investors that paying attention to the charts will provide you with nothing short of the opportunity to make some intelligent and profitable investment decisions. Whether you invest in the S&P 500(NYSE:SPY), the Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ), the Dow Jones (NYSE:DIA) or an individual stock there are always opportunities.  I do not believe in shorting a stock, it has never made any sense to me. In my humble opinion, if one does not like a company, then all they have to do is simply avoid the stock. I do not believe shorting a stock is good in any form and feel it has led to a multitude of market ills which have been exploited with the advances in technology. Intelligent bullish or bearish investors know how to capitalize on any situation. Any company will still go away if they don’t perform because investors will not stand behind it and stay loyal if their investment does not improve and consumers will not support companies which they don’t perceive as important enough to spend their income.

The automobile sector is showing increased support for investors to get bullish, as well as the latest fed notes showing an improving economy. Oil is starting to slide below 100 dollars which will be a relief to everyone’s wallet as gas prices have soared ridiculously high entirely too fast. Overall there are some mixed and conflicting reports out there and what it really comes down to is this; is optimism returning, or are we going to let the leftover fears from 2008 continue to invade our consciousness and affect our investment decisions?

For the best and most balanced investment decisions, come share your thoughts at Kingofalltrades.com. We believe that collectively as a group there is much to learn and much to share among investors. The more eyes that look at information the more detail that’s revealed to make a smarter investment decision. We believe due diligence is imperative and necessary, not just something to talk about for every investor. Tell us your thoughts and feelings related to the financial markets and join the discussion.

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Tired of Oil Speculation Driving Irrational Pricing?

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Once again, oil speculators are bullying prices higher based largely on fear and not reality.  When does it stop?  There needs to be an investigation and resulting punishment that is appropriate for the harm being done to multiple economies all in the name of deriving profits off largely overblown risk to current events.

Previous investigations have always been followed by more evenly tempered speculation, yet time and again prices get ratcheted up considerably.  All this constant cycle does is hurt consumers while a select few make unconscionable profits and drive irrational fear whenever and wherever they can. It clearly has become a game to some in the markets, which culminated in the financial collapse of several iconic institutions in 2008.  Libyan Oil does not come to the United States!  

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British Petroleum (NYSE:BP) Bashed But Still Viable Despite Negativity

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Shares of British Petroleum (NYSE: BP) continued to topple last week into Wednesday as the US government further enflamed an already ridiculous pissing match.  Everyone already knows the tragic situation unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico, not to mention the loss of 11 workers who died trying to make a better life for themselves and their families.  That said, the government has gone out of its way to seemingly throw gas on a bonfire.  Among the culprits, one Ken Salazar, who audaciously made the assertion that BP should have to pay for all oil workers jobs in the Gulf that are lost due to the disaster and the coming moronic halt of drilling in the Gulf by the U.S. government, which can only be described as the ultimate in micro-mismanagement and nearsightedness.  A knee jerk reaction to a serious problem, but one that makes little common sense once you look at the situation.  Certainly the continuing flow of oil in the Gulf is a major problem.  The death of many forms of marine life and plant life due to poisoning and suffocation from the oil is a horrible situation as well. Obviously BP needs to not only stop the oil from spilling into the Gulf, but they also need to compensate people whose incomes have been affected or destroyed by the situation and show some remorse, not make commercials to try and sway opinion.   The PR firm hired by BP has been one giant horror show with blunder after blunder.  Of course, our own US government and the President himself have been just as out of touch with reality on the ground in Louisiana.  Micro-management does not, has not, and will not work.

Taking a deeper look at the situation, several questions emerge.  Why has the President not met with BP CEO Tony Heyward, nor spoken to him?  Why is Halliburton, which performed the cementing work on the well hours before the explosion, and other companies involved with the situation being avoided in discussions regarding compensation to fishermen and repair of the damage to the environment?  Why is the US government attempting to decide whether a non U.S. company pays its shareholders a dividend? These are just a few of the questions that need to be answered.  The daily onslaught of negative news regarding BP from the media and the government has been shameful at best and borderline criminal at worst.   BP has lost more than half of its value; over 100 billion dollars in market cap in less than two months due to this accident and the ensuing constant negative news highlighted by the minute.  This I cannot understand.  Did the government force the Banks and the financial markets to compensate all the

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Record High in Gold Adds Allure To Yamana Gold Shares

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By Relmor Demitrius

Yamana Gold Inc.(NYSE:AUY) and other miners are feeling the effects of record gold prices.  Due to extreme market conditions in 2008, Yamana Gold has fallen short of its own high, trading near $11.25 today, but had traded as high as $14 in December of 2009.  Will Yamana Gold and other miners see another explosion back to extremely bullish prices?

Strong gold prices have been providing an excellent over $10 base on shares of AUY.  I am bullish on this equity anytime its trading strong over the $10 line.  Checking the charts we can see strong support in this area and a recent gap up and hold has given reason for investors in AMEX:HUI and NYSE:GDX companies to have hope of an early summer breakout.  The higher AUY trades, the more attune to market sentiment it will trade.  Is the NYSE:GLD a better play here?  When is spot gold due for a pull back?  All equities can be sold regardless of strength of sector in market pullbacks and gold miner shares are certainly no exception.  With price ranges from $18 to $4 during the 2008 blow off top to the sinking lows of the dreaded March of 2009 area, fear buying into shares of gold miners hasn’t always been the driving force in this equities accumulation pattern.  As gold prices rise, because of a base of support due to somewhat static costs versus increase in the product selling price, so does Yamana Gold’s abilities to generate profits.  The costs to mine gold do increase as oil prices increase and labor costs due to foreign exchange rates vary, but if the underlying product increases at a higher percentage than the increase in costs, additional profits are available.

With gold prices reaching record highs of over 1200 dollars an ounce, expanded revenue for unhedged miners are sure to follow.  I expect Q2 numbers in revenue in Yamana to have an increase due to this gold surge.  The percentage increase from $800 to $1000 isn’t as great as from $1000 to $1200, but most of this added value comes with less and less costs attached to the higher price.  Why do costs increase as gold increases?  Well it doesn’t necessarily, but when gold increases certain economic conditions are usually in play that increase gold miners costs of production of the metal.  These include mining countries with a strong local currency or having the falling dollar cause a rise in oil prices.  These are a few conditions that high gold prices can affect the cost side of business.

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Gold Breakout Comes Early (NYSE:GLD, NYSE:AUY, NYSE:GDX, NYSE:ABX)

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By Relmor Demitrius

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) in the last two trading days had climbed almost 3%, to $118.27 (this reflects a spot price equivalent of around $1,182.70 an ounce) at close on Friday.  Fears of a European financial meltdown brought on by weakness with their smaller members such as Greece, Spain, and Portugal combined with a falling stock market, drove buyers into gold last week.  Even after the GLD closed trading, a late day surge saw spot gold go from around 1,180 dollars an ounce to a near record high of 1,208 dollars an ounce, at the time New York COMEX ceased trading on Friday.

Last month I wrote an article predicting a sizeable breakout in gold to happen around the 20th of May.  It seems the gold breakout came early on Greece news, creating fear buying.  On my Chart 1, I showed the coming together of two long term trend lines around the 20th of May.  As you can see from the circled breakout from early September on Chart 1, that move also had an early breakout, so this should not be surprising, as May 20th was more of a deadline for this move, rather than a prediction on the exact day of its occurrence.  A strong qualification of a valid resistance break is that it occurs on high volume.  As indicated on Chart 2 this break does indeed have higher than usual volume.

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