By Relmor Demitrius

Mel and Howard

There are many ways to identify and define success.  The same can be said about worth and value.  It is especially true when trying to apply these concepts to something intangible, as an artist or performer.  Take a talent like Howard Stern.  He’s not a hard asset that you can simply attach a known value to, or state exactly what he would mean to your company.  What is his actual value to Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI)?  When Greg Maffei (CEO of Liberty Media and Liberty Capital (NASDAQ:LCAPA) and 40% owners of Sirius XM, ask Mel Karmazin (CEO of Sirius XM) how much is Howard Stern worth to the company, what does he tell him?  This is the debate among bloggers to professional financial analysis that has been going on for years.  How do you evaluate Howard Stern’s actual value to the company?  He makes 100 million dollars a year, minus the cost to run his show.  Is he worth it?  Is he overpaid?  Is he underpaid?  Is he fairly paid?  How much of Sirius XM’s revenue can be attributed to him.  In this article I will go over the effect of signing Howard Stern to Sirius Satellite Radio and any effect overall he had on the satellite radio industry altogether.  First, let’s get some opinions out of the way.

Howard Stern is an amazing talent and still the best radio on radio.  No offense to Michael Savage fans, Rush Limbaugh, Opie and Anthony, or Larry King.  Whatever.  There is still no bigger celebrity in radio.  Rush is close, but I don’t think he even can match Howard still to this day.  Howard’s popularity may be waning but he is still the best.  That being said, let us leave the personal opinions and feelings at the door.

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By Relmor Demitrius

Greg Maffei

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) is offered many opinions of what their shares are actually worth.  It just depends on who you listen too.  There seems to be a vastly different view of just how much one should pay for this equity and ultimately what is their appropriate market cap.  If readers know my style, they know I do not work with subjectives or opinions.  I like cold hard facts when I tackle a problem.  The pulse of the investor community seems to be right now on trying to understand how an equity so obviously undervalued is still priced at $1 a share.  What is Sirius XM’s real fair value?  Well why waste a second longer, let us begin.

Without boring anyone on just how dangerous it is to attempt to use the stock market current price at any one time to try to determine actual retail sale value of a company and hence what one share is actually worth in reality (meaning if every share were to be purchased at one time, at what price could they buy the company) might offer a little insight.  Here is a good example of this from 2008. (more…)

By Relmor Demitrius

One June 25th, this Friday, the Russell family of indexes will have its yearly reconstitution event.  This event adds and deletes companies on their Russell index’s and tracking funds. Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) will be one such addition.  It is not 100% official, as the official list doesn’t come out until next Monday, but its about as sure a lock as you can get in this type of situation.  Sirius XM was listed as an addition on the first two lists released, one on June 11th and the other on June 18th.  This is good timing for a stock that has been in an uptrend now since 6/9/10.  The equity has been moving up into this planned buy. 

Russell reconstitution is usually a high volume event that can result in massive volatility of price movement on that day.  On Friday, over 200 million shares, maybe much more, must be purchased.  Last year the market dumped these Russell shares, now the company enjoys the benefit of the reverse of that scenario.  One of the best advantages of being added is these shares will now not trade anymore.  They are used for exposure, not to be traded around.  This is great news for Sirius XM investors as any reduction in the tradable float can help sustain price levels and reduce downside volatility.  I believe Sirius XM will be added to the Russell 1000, which is a list of the top 1000 companies, based mostly on market cap but not entirely, which would require even more stock to be purchased.  The more lists they are on, i.e. Russell 1000, Russell 3000, Global funds, mid cap funds, etc.. the more shares will need to become available.  It has been speculated as many as 500 million shares may be required.  But who’s going to sell them the shares? (more…)

By Relmor Demitrius

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) will be announcing its first quarter results before the bell on Tuesday, May 4th.  Investors will anxiously await to see if this is finally the quarter that Sirius XM breaks into fully adjusted positive earnings, and finally puts to bed the notion this stock will never see profits.  Free cash flow and EBTIDA are already a reality, and with an improving balance sheet and outlook profits are usually sure to follow.  Investors will be watching closely for EBITDA numbers, free cash flow, and any insight into future plans with Liberty Media.  The company had already released subscriber numbers, adding 171,000 net addition in Q1 of 2010.

Join King of All Trades for live conference call analysis as it happens in our chat room, or post in our forums for expert opinions, investor feedback, and great fact based discussions involving Sirius XM Radio. 

Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LINTA), which owns 40% of Sirius XM in its tracking stock Liberty Capital (NASDAQ:LCAPA) will be reporting on Thursday, May 6th.

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Disclosure:  Long SIRI

By Relmor Demitrius -

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) will announce their first quarter conference call results on Tuesday, May 4th.  Sirius XM usually reports on a Thursday and most recently the same day that Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LINTA) reports.  Liberty Media holds 40% of Sirius XM Radio in its tracking stock, Liberty Capital (NASDAQ:LCAPA).  Liberty Media is reporting on Thursday, May 6th.  It was assumed by many investors that Sirius XM would report on that day as well.  When the company announced last week that they were moving their expected date up two days, speculation sparked to assume a good quarter is forthcoming.  Let us look at the numbers and see if there is any reality to this hope.

Before we begin breaking down specific metrics, let us lay down some ground work for some assumptions, expectations, and logical reasoning on certain calculations.  Usually the best way to approach a company’s prospects for a given quarter is to look closely at their year to year results and ask yourself what’s changed since then.  So what’s changed from Q1 of 2009?  Alot. (more…)