LINTA Archive

4

Sirius XM Radio Surges to New 52 Week High on High Volume

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By KOAT Staff

    Shares of Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) surged to an intra day high today of $2.36, setting yet another 52 week high.  It had already established a new 52 week high on more than one occasion last week as well.  This move is coming on higher than average volume.  This may cause investors to ask the question, “Is this move news based?”.  It could very well be a news story yet to come or still solid demand from their strong quarter reported last week.  Whatever the cause the stock has been on a tear since September of 2010 and hasn’t slowed since. 

Investors are looking forward to the annual stockholders meeting in May, the expiration of the poison pill in August (as well as the time when Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LINTA) can make a tender offer for the entire company), and the June 30th expiration of the reverse split vote from 2010.  Not to mention the exciting news surrounding recent acquisitions of Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) in correlation with a Dish insider now sitting on the board of Sirius XM Radio. 

All these factors could be attributing to the rise, but one thing is certain.  Long sought after shareholder value from investors is finally being realized.  Evaluations are catching up as Wall Street is catching on to the Sirius XM success story.  They reported their highest earnings to date, at .02 cents a share in Q1.  With raised free cash flow guidance and adding more subscribers than expected, this stock still could have room to run.  Looking at the charts, if $2.40 breaks, $2.70 may not be far behind.  As most price targets from analysts are near $2 to $2.80 range, it will be interesting to see if these are raised as the targets are approached.

5

Sirius XM Proxy Puts Reverse Split/Poison Pill to Bed

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By Relmor Demitrius

Yesterday, Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) released their annual proxy for their upcoming stockholder meeting.  The stockholder meeting will take place in New York on May 25th.  The biggest news was not what was on the proxy but what wasn’t on it.  The poison pill and the reverse split will not be extended.

The reverse split was needed by the board in case it was needed to avoid delisting from being under $1 too long.  According to NASDAQ rules they were almost in violation of the minimum bid rule.  In 2009 and 2010 the board, as needed by NASDAQ, had to have a plan in place in case the stock couldn’t trade over $1 in time on its own.  Also to get an extension on this a plan had to be in place to solve this.  The reverse split option allowed Sirius XM the most time possible to get over on its own, which it did eventually.  As Mel Karmazin (CEO of Sirius XM Radio) stated to interviewers a 100 times after they put in a reverse split option, the only use of the reverse split would be to avoid delisting.  This exclusion from the proxy validates his comments.

Many journalists didn’t believe Mel or thought they knew better, thinking a reverse split might be a good thing and should be done.  Well, this issue is now officially over.  Mel was telling the truth and the only purpose for the reverse split vote was for delisting purposes only.  The stock is instantly more valuable now that this has been removed.

The poison pill was initiated by the board and Liberty to protect the NOL’s from being reset until the August 2011 date passed.  That is when the change of ownership from the merger, 3 years out, would reset and this could open the door finally for Liberty or another company to make an offer on the company.  It also allows institutions who want to own more than 4.9% of the company the ability to do just that now without causing dilution due to the poison pill.  As expected, it was only put in to protect the NOL’s and after August would not be needed again.  With the expiration of the poison pill shares would immediately become more valuable.

Also on the proxy is the list of nominated board members for 2011.  Not surprising as well, is that Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LINTA), is adding 2 more board members.  They would be counted as independent board members and under those rules.  This brings John Malone’s influence on the board to 5 members now.  Greg Maffei of course and John Malone (pictured above) are on the board already, with Flowers, and these two additions.

The new additions are Vanessa A. Wittman and Carl Vogel.  Here is what the proxy lists as Ms. Wittman’s credentials.

“Ms. Wittman has been a director since April 2011. Ms. Wittman is Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (“MMC”), a professional services company providing advice and solutions in the areas of risk, strategy, and human capital. Prior to joining MMC in September 2008, Ms. Wittman was Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Adelphia Communications Corp., a cable television company, from 2003 to 2007. Prior to Adelphia, Ms. Wittman served as Chief Financial Officer of 360networks, a wholesale provider of telecommunications services. “She also has held positions with Microsoft, Metricom Inc. and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated. Ms. Wittman serves as a director of kgb, an independent provider of directory assistance and enhanced information services. Ms. Wittman also served on the board of directors of Infospace, an internet search services company, from January 2003 to January 2008.”

The other Malone selection is very interesting indeed.  Here is what the proxy says about Mr. Vogel.

“Mr. Vogel has been a director since April 2011. Mr. Vogel is currently a member of the board of directors of Dish Network Corporation, a satellite television provider, and a senior advisor to its Chairman, CEO and President. He served as President of Dish Network Corporation from September 2006 until February 2008 and served as Vice Chairman from June 2005 until March 2009. From October 2007 until March 2009, Mr. Vogel served as the Vice Chairman of the board of directors of, and as a Senior Advisor to, EchoStar Communications Corporation. From 2001 until 2005, Mr. Vogel served as the President and CEO of Charter Communications Inc., a cable television and broadband services provider. Prior to joining Charter, Mr. Vogel worked as an executive officer in various capacities for companies affiliated with Liberty Media. Mr. Vogel is a member of the boards of directors and audit committees of Shaw Communications, Inc., a diversified communications company providing broadband cable and direct-to-home satellite services in Canada, Universal Electronics, Inc., a provider of wireless control technology for connected homes, NextWave Wireless Inc., a wireless technology company that develops, produces, and markets mobile multimedia and consumer electronic solutions, and is a member of the board of directors, audit committee and executive committee of Ascent Media Corporation.”

His ties to Direct TV’s rival Dish Network is interesting.  I wouldn’t have expected a Dish insider to be on our board, but here it is.  This should lead to some interesting discussions on this board selection.

The other proxy votes involve voting for a non biding advisory in regards to compensation pay and how often that compensation pay should be reviewed.  This one is getting the most media attention so far and it the least important of the issues on or not on this proxy.

This proxy has shed some light on what may happen with the company and its leadership going forward and puts to rest some long standing negatives of owning the stock as well.

For investor discussions on all trades and markets, visit www.kingofalltrades.com/community.

Disclosure:  Long SIRI

4

Sirius XM Annual Proxy Coming Soon

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By Relmor Demitrius

   Investors in Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) will be eagerly anticipating this years proxy letter from the company regarding their annual meeting, usually taking place at the end of May.  There may be some issues to vote on that would remove a few questions about the future of the company’s stock and who exactly will be in control.

One of these issues will be if the reverse split is extended again.  The current vote on the issue expires June 30th of this year.  Mel may want this as a hanging threat over Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LINTA) and John Malone (pictured above) if they were to convert their 40% stake into common stock.  Why?  Because with a reverse split option and a new high authorized share count compared to what would be the new float, a post conversion dilution of Liberty Media would be possible, hence lowering the 40% to a much lower percentage.  The reverse split itself would be a neutral event to Sirius XM current stockholders and would serve notice to Liberty that future control is not guaranteed.  If the reverse split vote isn’t extended, then its positive the stock price immediately, as current holders can rest assured no reverse split is coming soon.  If Liberty wants full control they may have to add to their stake in the open market.  I would expect all low ball tender offers for shares to be denied by the board.  If this caused Liberty to add faster than they would like, then it could be an overall benefit to stockholders.  I don’t foresee Liberty converting, but if there is a battle for control, this is one of the few weapons Mel Karmazin (CEO of Sirius XM Radio) has at his control.  I would expect Liberty to vote down all reverse split votes going forward.

Another vote that may come up is to extend the poison pill.  If the poison pill expires, this opens the door to other potential buyers.  I’ve heard the case before about how much more capital would be required to buy Sirius XM over what Liberty would need.  That’s the stupidest argument in the world.  Liberty already owns 40%.  Might as well tell me the sun may come up tomorrow.  That doesn’t mean another company doesn’t want to buy 60% and regain control of the board.  If Liberty wants to make an offer for 10% of the company, then this will drive the price up over what the competition offers.  Why?  Who’s going to accept a lower tender offer from Liberty after receiving a higher one from the third company?  Why sell for $2.50, when $3.50 is being offered.  Once the new company has board control, they simply deny all tender offers going forward (they own the remaining float and never have to sell).  Liberty will be forced to overpay for the remaining control to stop this takeover.  Also good for stockholders.  Who wins in that war?  Existing SIRI stockholders, that’s who.

It will be interesting to see in this coming proxy if Liberty asks for their remaining board seats to be filled.  They currently control 3 of 11 seats.  It will be also curious to see if Sirius XM adds their allotted 1 more board seat too, and if Leon Black is gone (Apollo Group sold most of their holding of stock).  With Leon Black gone the board immediately becomes more believable and removes a huge cloud of dark air surrounding the company’s past.  It has always been my opinion that Liberty wants Apollo out of that board room. 

It will also be fun to see Sirius XM go by with year two in the books of not increasing their authorized share count.  This signals to long term investors that the money train dilution may have left the station for now, and its all clear to enter positions.

With poison pill expiring in August, ability to raise rates in August, the May stockholder meeting coming up, and the March expiration of the 49.9% ownership freeze from Liberty, this coming 6 months ahead should be with investors eyes wide open to the news wires.

For financial news, discussion, and analysis from like minded investors, please visit www.kingofalltrades.com/community.

Disclosure:  Long SIRI

9

Can Liberty Media Lose Control Of Sirius XM?

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By Relmor Demitrius

       Long time Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) stockholders remember February of 2009 very well.  With massive debt coming due in 2009 and increasingly limited means of removing it, Sirius XM needed a loan.  Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LINTA) provided Sirius XM with a temporary loan it needed to meet is financial obligations for the year 2009.  In exchange for this help, Sirius XM gave Liberty Media preferred shares worth 40% of the total outstanding shares at the time of conversion. These shares had added power associated with them as well.  These included voting rights, say in stock issuances, ability to nix new debt obligations over 10 million (other than refinancing existing debt),  and say in any selling of assets.  These rights have no expiration date so long as Liberty beneficially owns at least half its initial investment and are good until conversion.  So what can Sirius XM do to regain more control with the current board of directors (who represent SIRI stockholders, not Liberty Capital (NASDAQ:SIRI)), which is the tracking stock being used to hold Liberty’s 40% stake in Sirius XM.  Is there an opening for another bidder?  Is there a war of control coming?  Do Sirius XM and Liberty’s intentions match?  For control, maybe not.  How would history view Mel Karmazin if he somehow managed to regain control of the company  from Liberty or was able to somehow introduce another party to drive the price up?  Does he have the tools necessary? 

Liberty is a big supporter of current management and seem content to keep only 2 board seats at this time.  They are allowed 6 of 15 seats maximum currently.  John Malone and Greg Maffei, and Flowers (3 Liberty Media members on the Sirius XM board) are not stupid.  They knew keeping current management maximized the company’s chances for success.  Also why ruin your underlying value of your holding by making bad business decisions or trying to fix something that isn’t broken?  Liberty counts the value of their holding as current conversion share quantity (if they converted today) times the current share price.  Right now Liberty is stating this value is around 4.7 billion dollars. 

But who does the Sirius XM board really represent?  No insider holds significant percentage amounts in the stock.  Option contracts awarded for no cost to the insider is not the same type of motivation one gets from an actual direct stock purchase (something no insider has done one since Mel Karmazin (CEO of Sirius XM) purchased 3 million shares in 2008 at $1.37 a share.  Any board member buy any shares?  No.  Officers of the company?  No.  Related parties?  No.  Did John Malone buy any shares?  No.  Greg Maffei?  No.  How many institutions are big block holders who own more than 4.5% of the company?  Zero.  So who is the board exactly representing?  Leon Black, long time board member since his Apollo Group loaned Sirius Satellite Radio money a few years back, did own 90 million shares through Apollo, but now they reportedly have sold over 60 million of those shares according to the latest filing.  So who on the board actually has a vested interest in protecting the stockholders?  By law, the board must act in the best interest of its stockholders.  Giving out bonus shares in December of 2008 on the verge of bankruptcy is one small example of the board possibly failing in this obligation.  Will there be others?  Maybe Mel Karamzin cares as a matter of personal pride.  He does own significant amounts of option contracts that I’m sure he’d rather exercise at a higher price than a lower one, but those were issued for free at a break even price of around .46 cents.  So Mel is already very rich from this deal.  Does anyone on the board actually care to get creative and even try to dilute Liberty’s control, or actually try to make it harder to acquire?  Mel Karmazin is the wild card here.  He has stated that he will make it as hard on Liberty as possible to gain further control.  He took the best deal on the table in February of 2009 that allowed him to stay in control.  I believe Mel Karamzin does want the SIRI common to succeed, and I don’t feel being owned by Liberty is benefiting the company in any way other than possible tax advice (Malone is considered a tax expert) in 2 years now.  The only thing Liberty owning 40% control has done has limited other potential buyers.  In fact Sirius XM lists Liberty’s ownership in their SEC annual report as a stock negative, citing how it could inhibit potential buyers and that Liberty’s interests might not be the same as Sirius XM’s.  There have been no monetary benefits or cash infusion of any kind by synergies or deals with anything else owned by Liberty Media.  LCAPA has offered no cash to supplement Sirius XM’s balance sheet. 

Mel gets some firepower back in a few months.  The poison pill does expire in August of this year and should allow the opportunity for a possible buyer, or large block accumulator or two to add significant amounts of control.  The expiration of the poison pill, I’m sure something Mel fought for to expire in negotiations with Liberty, might be the first weapon Mel obtains in this fight.  Basically now outside buyers are free to add shares with no dilutive effects.  What else is possible?

Here is one idea I have heard.  Sirius XM can reverse split the stock, increasing the authorized share amount percentage wise much higher than the current ratio of outstanding to authorize shares, hence allowing a post conversion dilution of Liberty’s shares.  This would be the only way to add to the authorized share count without Liberty’s consent.  If a reverse split is on the table when Liberty converts, Mel can sell to a trusted party, or parties, board members, or institutions friendly to his control, and dilute Liberty’s stake to well under 30% or less if a high enough reverse split is enacted.  Only one problem with this.  Liberty can vote down any reverse split votes and will (Liberty does not want a reverse split option on the board) as it prevents a conversion.  Mel could reverse split right now until June 28th without Liberty’s approval, but would have no benefit in doing so until Liberty actually converted.  Mel’s time table for the reverse split option is running out.  As this year’s proxy statement is due in about a month, we will know soon if the r/s vote is being extended or not.  If so, and Liberty votes it down, we would have our first visible conflict between the parties.  Liberty had to agree to extend the reverse split option in June of 2010 because of delisting concerns, and as protection to the value of their holding.  If delisting is off the table, so is Liberty’s support for a r/s.  Liberty wants the stock to appreciate naturally, with full share count in tact.   With a zero dollar buy in price, why not right?  There is one more way I can think of the board can reduce the amount of control Liberty has to a buy out offer.  You can weaken their leveraged ability and value of their Sirius XM holding.  How?  By buying back shares on the open market.

How is the possible you say?  Liberty cannot prevent Sirius XM from using its cash on hand to buy back shares.  Liberty can also not prevent Sirius XM from refinancing debt either, which could also free up cash to buy back shares.  What Sirius XM cannot do without Liberty’s approval is take on debt to buy back shares.  But will they buy back shares?  Sound crazy?  Not really.  Mel has been threatening to do this since at least the last 3 conference calls.  There are no current debt covenants preventing this.  He has also stated in the latest conference call a desire to stay debt to ebitda leveraged at 3 to 1, or a 3 rating.  They are currently a tad over 4.  So if you remove the 200 million due in 2011, and assume the 2014 bonds are converting to shares in the 2013 to 2014 time frame, you’re really left with in or around 2014 an almost 2.2 debt ratio using 1 billion EBITDA.  That will probably be too low in 2014.  That is very conservative estimate of EBITDA.  This would open the door for Mel to take on bonds and new money for the sole purpose of reducing the outstanding share count.  Since Mel may not be allowed by Liberty to go into debt to buy back shares, nothing prevents Sirius XM from refinancing debt due sooner and using cash on hand instead of buying back the bonds, to buy back shares. 

How does this weaken Liberty?  It doesn’t necessarily, but it can in theory only.  Where the stock price goes after the buy back would be crucial.  Since for every 1 share in the outstanding count Sirius XM has, .4 shares needs to be set aside for Liberty Media in case of a conversion.  So by buying back 1 share from the float, you would reduce the outstanding share count by 1.4 shares.  With a static stock price, this reduces the total value of LCAPA’s holding.  This greatly improves your p/e ratio and earnings per share as well.  It’s a win win for stockholders.  No value in it at all for Liberty Media.  Best case scenario is it evens out.  The stock would need to appreciate proportionally because you have changed the equation.  You reduce Liberty’s shares being held for conversion, making it a little easier possibly for a third party buyer to bully Liberty out of the picture with a high tender offer.  Since Liberty may not have as much leverage from the total value of their holding anymore, this could weaken their position to over pay for remaining control of the company.  Of course if the stock price takes off even more than the reduced number of theoretical converted shares at any point in time, because of maybe simply announcing a buy back, it would still be a win win for Sirius XM stockholders, as they gained value versus previous levels and have the same amount of shares in hand.  The other way, it not being reflected 100% in the appreciation of the stock, helps allow a new buyer to enter.  As of right now, approximately 2.6 billion shares are set aside and untouched in case Liberty converts.  Sirius XM has a total of 3.361 billion shares set aside for all reasons.  If you add this to the float, you come up with around 6.5 billion shares outstanding.  2.56 billion shares Liberty would have if they converted today.   This of course including stocks for option plans, warrants, and of course the 3.9 billion shares in the float.

So as you can see, between now and March of 2012 should be very interesting and revealing in what is going to happen.  I expect Liberty to add board seats this year or next.  There could very well be situations and possibilities other than discussed here, and would be more than happy to have them shared. 

To continue this conversation and offer your own thoughts to like minded investors, please visit www.kingofalltrades.com/community.

Disclosure:  Long SIRI

10

Sirius XM’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) Karmazin Makes a Bullish Case

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Sirius XM

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) CEO Mel Karmazin was a featured speaker yesterday at the Communications and Media conference sponsored by (NYSE: BAC) Bank of America / (NYSE: ML) Merrill Lynch.  Karmazin was steady and bullish in making his case for Sirius XM satellite radio and its subscription based model.  Mel also affirmed the company’s previous guidance for 2010; revenue in the $2.8 billion range, adjusted EBITDA of roughly $575 million, and around 20 million subscribers.

Among some of the more interesting talking points for Karmazin was the fact that the NFL contract renewal is in the works. Karmazin stated that the legalities were being worked on by both sides at this point, although no official announcement has been made at this time.

Another important point was that after the next two satellite launches; XM 5 this October and FM 6 in 2011, there will be little to no CAPEX till at least 2017, which means there will be a big jump in bottom line cash over the 2012 to 2017 time frame.  Perhaps that is part of why Karmazin was rather non committal about refinancing debt out in the 2013 to 2015 timeframe. The company clearly seems to be holding their cards close to the vest in that regard.

Mel Karmazin also spoke about total subscriber acquisition costs (not per addition, which is decreasing) and that he had zero reservations about those costs increasing with 60 % of new cars this year having OEM radios compared to 55 % last year.  This is due to increased take rate and increasing revenue per user.   Mel knows that they use no cash to add subscribers.  It now comes directly from quarter to quarter cash flow.  Sirius XM has evolved into a company that can now add subscribers at a nice clip while still generating record amounts of free cash flow in the process.  Mel also repeated that the reworked GM contract is helping in this area as well.

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