LINTB Archive

3

Sirius Continues to Attract Attention

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Sirius XM (NSDQ: SIRI) continues to improve their standing as a viable company. The release of the Blackberry application PR from the company is just another tell tale sign that the company is marching forward and looking to the future in many directions: http://investor.sirius.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=443007 The stock has seen a recent increase in daily volume and value despite some recent fear and bearishness from people worrying about a possible reverse split due to listing requirements for NASDAQ. To that end, CEO Mel Karmazin appears to be executing a plan to ensure the company stays listed on the NASDAQ Global Market. Some have even theorized that the company should r/s now to mitigate manipulation due to such a large share count. This would be a bad move in my humble opinion and I believe it is not the intent of Sirius XM or Mel Karmazin to let that happen now. Too many positives have been and continue to be achieved.

As several of us here at King of All Trades have stated of Sirius XM over the last few months, the combined company is presenting and executing a different business model than in previous years as separate companies. They have grown revenue and increased cash flow in one of the most challenging economies of our lifetimes, as well as stemmed the flow of subscriber losses with many consumers having much less discretionary income. The company has also stayed on point with improving costs through merger synergies and with continued improvements quarter over quarter in operating expenses. The fundamentals continue to move forward in positive fashion. Early press for the upcoming conference call is positive….so…try to think about why you invested in this company in the first place. The short term price swings are not important in the big picture; they are merely scenes in a play. You are not supposed to get in on opportunities like this, many try to shake your confidence in hope of getting your shares…and forcing you to buy higher…taking your hard earned profits, so know the risks, formulate a plan if you do not have one already and stick to it. The rest will sort itself out.

Sirius XM has yet to report on Used Car program numbers and their impact to the bottom line subscriber numbers, or the full impact of the new Skydock to retail subscriber numbers. The company continues to assert itself as a force to be reckoned with in Media and Content distribution. Liberty Medias (NSDQ: LCAPA) investment in Sirius XM last February has reaped a lot of fruit to date, and according to Greg Maffei of Liberty, Sirius is on track to continue to improve so much, that it will use up its NOLS far sooner than anticipated. As a side note, LCAPA stock just received an upgrade recently, as did Sirius XMs debt. Companies get debt upgrades when their balance sheets look more favorable.

Disclosure: Long SIRI

9

Misconceptions of Sirius XM Radio Rebuked

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By Relmor Demitrius -

Reading news lately on Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) has been an adventure to say the least.  The amount of misinformation, outright lies, made up opinions, and simply terrible logic is staggering.  As I am only a fact based writer, let’s use facts to dispute some of these attempts by the media.  Let’s see if we can’t clear up some of this chatter.

Satellite Radio Technology is outdated.

This is actually the furthest thing from the truth possible.  Satellite delivery is the cutting edge of technology.  More and more satellites go into orbit every year, for more and more applications.  Fact.  There is no debating this.  TV’s are going to satellite delivery, as cable companies have trouble expanding with costly start up costs, and the need to dig up dirt, or run wires from house to house.  This is archaic technology, and is not the future.  Cable TV might never go away, but reports are coming in fast now with Comcast buying NBC that broadcast over airwaves TV might be dead very soon.  Which makes sense.  We see the “old technology” delivery of radio, terrestrial radio, is losing market share and money.  Citadel Radio just declared bankruptcy, and Clear Channel went private.   They can’t even trade as a stock anymore, that’s how bad it is.  You couldn’t even FOMENT that stock up if you tried. 

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2

With Credit Ratings Improving, Sirius XM May Target Merger Note Refi

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King of All Trades Staff -

Sirius XM Radio(NASDAQ:SIRI) has received two S & P corporate credit ratings upgrades this year. In April S & P took their corporate credit rating  from CCC to CCC+, and another one in August to a B- rating.  Perception of a company’s debt load and its ability to repay that debt is vital to a company’s ability to obtain new money for refinancing existing debt for better terms, or to obtain new debt altogether.

Now this month JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) has initiated coverage of  Sirius XM’s credit.  They have begun coverage with an over-weight rating.  Sirius XM Radio has confirmed this coverage.

This rating typically indicates the company’s debt is a reliable long term investment at this point in time.  As equities are bought and sold, so are a company’s bond issues.  It appears now that JP Morgan will cover both Sirius XM’s equity, which they have given a Neutral Rating, and now their debt as well.  JP Morgan re-initiated coverage of Sirius XM’s equity in May of 2009.

Being bullish on a company’s debt is encouraging, as the company may seek to further refinance existing debt, especially the 550 million in bonds sold in July of 2008, to facilitate the merger of the two companies, Sirius Satellite Radio, and XM Satellite Radio.  These bonds were considered “ugly financing” by investors due to the company giving lent shares along with the bonds so they could be properly hedged.  If this debt were to be refinanced with new money, the rate might come down (7%), and the lent shares (202 million against the current float) would be returned and destroyed by the company.  These shares have never counted when calculating earnings per share, but are still involved in the float.  In the Q3 quarterly report Sirius XM reported 60 million of these lent shares were returned and destroyed by the company.

Another bond issue Sirius XM might target is the other bond issue needed to facilitate the merger in July of 2008.  These 13% 770 million notes due in 2013 carry a higher interest rate, and are due sooner.  Either way, both have reasons to be targeted first, depending on managements corporate strategy.

Sirius XM was able to refinance most of its 2009 outstanding debt due to Liberty Media’s loan in February of this year.  Sirius XM’s 40% equity stake awarded to Liberty for this assistance is trading in Liberty Media’s holding company, Liberty Media Corporation Capital (NASDAQ:LCAPA).  Other tracking companies of Liberty Media include Liberty Media Corporation – Interactive (NASDAQ:LINTA), (NASDAQ:LINTB), Liberty Media Corporation – Starz, (NASDAQ:LSTZA), (NASDAQ:LSTZB), and Liberty Media Corporation Capital (NASDAQ:LCAPA), (NASDAQ:LCAPB).  Liberty also owns the controlling interest in Worldspace, Inc. (OTC:WRSPQ).

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