By: Gino Lattarulo
With Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) set to release earnings in about one week , the question that seems to be on the minds of the masses is: Will the results be enough to drive the stock to the next level of support and resistance or will it remain in it’s current trading range because everything is already priced in? Let’s talk about that for a bit.
I think it’s fair to say that ever since the stock action pushed through the $ 1.00 mark it has been about as exciting as watching a fly crawl up a drape. Every time it looked like something was going to make the price pop to the next level it just fizzled right back to that one dollar hard deck. There just hasn’t been any thrilling catalyst. As usual, the exciting has become the norm.
12 years ago when you watched Mark McGuire smash a home run 1 out of every 10 at bats, it was exciting. But after awhile the fans and critics simply got used to the idea. It was just a given that he would hit a tape measure homer every three to four games and when it didn’t happen there was disappointment. ” Wow I wonder what’s wrong with Mark today”. Never mind the fact that the man owns the lowest At Bats Per Home Run ratio in baseball history. It was just expected that he would perform this way. If, however, some obscure player from the Montreal Expos started spitting out dingers once every ten at bats, there would be pandemonium in Canada.
Stock performance is really no different. Once a company sets a standard for their performance they have to continually ( and excitingly) exceed that performance to garner any lavish attention from Wall Street. Take APPLE (NASDAQ:AAPL) for example. Their recent earnings was effectively doubled over last year, and yes the stock did move up a bit, but blowing out earnings is so normal for this company that it really wasn’t huge news to Wall Street. They always want a bigger number than what is expected.Sirius is no exception either. Better than expected subscriber growth? nah…. Forward guidance of over a million subscribers? nah… That was yesterday’s excitement. Today’s climate not only dictates the ” What have you done for me lately” mentality, but the ” What will you do for me in the future?” mentality as well.
So again, where will the catalyst come from? Earnings? Some fabulously statistical news event? Just like the Gulf oil spill, it’s all a game of hurry up and wait, politics, and posturing. Hey BP, how’s the clean up and restitution coming? Nah…
Peace
