Greg Maffei Archive

5

Sirius XM Proxy Puts Reverse Split/Poison Pill to Bed

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By Relmor Demitrius

Yesterday, Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) released their annual proxy for their upcoming stockholder meeting.  The stockholder meeting will take place in New York on May 25th.  The biggest news was not what was on the proxy but what wasn’t on it.  The poison pill and the reverse split will not be extended.

The reverse split was needed by the board in case it was needed to avoid delisting from being under $1 too long.  According to NASDAQ rules they were almost in violation of the minimum bid rule.  In 2009 and 2010 the board, as needed by NASDAQ, had to have a plan in place in case the stock couldn’t trade over $1 in time on its own.  Also to get an extension on this a plan had to be in place to solve this.  The reverse split option allowed Sirius XM the most time possible to get over on its own, which it did eventually.  As Mel Karmazin (CEO of Sirius XM Radio) stated to interviewers a 100 times after they put in a reverse split option, the only use of the reverse split would be to avoid delisting.  This exclusion from the proxy validates his comments.

Many journalists didn’t believe Mel or thought they knew better, thinking a reverse split might be a good thing and should be done.  Well, this issue is now officially over.  Mel was telling the truth and the only purpose for the reverse split vote was for delisting purposes only.  The stock is instantly more valuable now that this has been removed.

The poison pill was initiated by the board and Liberty to protect the NOL’s from being reset until the August 2011 date passed.  That is when the change of ownership from the merger, 3 years out, would reset and this could open the door finally for Liberty or another company to make an offer on the company.  It also allows institutions who want to own more than 4.9% of the company the ability to do just that now without causing dilution due to the poison pill.  As expected, it was only put in to protect the NOL’s and after August would not be needed again.  With the expiration of the poison pill shares would immediately become more valuable.

Also on the proxy is the list of nominated board members for 2011.  Not surprising as well, is that Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LINTA), is adding 2 more board members.  They would be counted as independent board members and under those rules.  This brings John Malone’s influence on the board to 5 members now.  Greg Maffei of course and John Malone (pictured above) are on the board already, with Flowers, and these two additions.

The new additions are Vanessa A. Wittman and Carl Vogel.  Here is what the proxy lists as Ms. Wittman’s credentials.

“Ms. Wittman has been a director since April 2011. Ms. Wittman is Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (“MMC”), a professional services company providing advice and solutions in the areas of risk, strategy, and human capital. Prior to joining MMC in September 2008, Ms. Wittman was Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Adelphia Communications Corp., a cable television company, from 2003 to 2007. Prior to Adelphia, Ms. Wittman served as Chief Financial Officer of 360networks, a wholesale provider of telecommunications services. “She also has held positions with Microsoft, Metricom Inc. and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated. Ms. Wittman serves as a director of kgb, an independent provider of directory assistance and enhanced information services. Ms. Wittman also served on the board of directors of Infospace, an internet search services company, from January 2003 to January 2008.”

The other Malone selection is very interesting indeed.  Here is what the proxy says about Mr. Vogel.

“Mr. Vogel has been a director since April 2011. Mr. Vogel is currently a member of the board of directors of Dish Network Corporation, a satellite television provider, and a senior advisor to its Chairman, CEO and President. He served as President of Dish Network Corporation from September 2006 until February 2008 and served as Vice Chairman from June 2005 until March 2009. From October 2007 until March 2009, Mr. Vogel served as the Vice Chairman of the board of directors of, and as a Senior Advisor to, EchoStar Communications Corporation. From 2001 until 2005, Mr. Vogel served as the President and CEO of Charter Communications Inc., a cable television and broadband services provider. Prior to joining Charter, Mr. Vogel worked as an executive officer in various capacities for companies affiliated with Liberty Media. Mr. Vogel is a member of the boards of directors and audit committees of Shaw Communications, Inc., a diversified communications company providing broadband cable and direct-to-home satellite services in Canada, Universal Electronics, Inc., a provider of wireless control technology for connected homes, NextWave Wireless Inc., a wireless technology company that develops, produces, and markets mobile multimedia and consumer electronic solutions, and is a member of the board of directors, audit committee and executive committee of Ascent Media Corporation.”

His ties to Direct TV’s rival Dish Network is interesting.  I wouldn’t have expected a Dish insider to be on our board, but here it is.  This should lead to some interesting discussions on this board selection.

The other proxy votes involve voting for a non biding advisory in regards to compensation pay and how often that compensation pay should be reviewed.  This one is getting the most media attention so far and it the least important of the issues on or not on this proxy.

This proxy has shed some light on what may happen with the company and its leadership going forward and puts to rest some long standing negatives of owning the stock as well.

For investor discussions on all trades and markets, visit www.kingofalltrades.com/community.

Disclosure:  Long SIRI

9

Can Liberty Media Lose Control Of Sirius XM?

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By Relmor Demitrius

       Long time Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) stockholders remember February of 2009 very well.  With massive debt coming due in 2009 and increasingly limited means of removing it, Sirius XM needed a loan.  Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LINTA) provided Sirius XM with a temporary loan it needed to meet is financial obligations for the year 2009.  In exchange for this help, Sirius XM gave Liberty Media preferred shares worth 40% of the total outstanding shares at the time of conversion. These shares had added power associated with them as well.  These included voting rights, say in stock issuances, ability to nix new debt obligations over 10 million (other than refinancing existing debt),  and say in any selling of assets.  These rights have no expiration date so long as Liberty beneficially owns at least half its initial investment and are good until conversion.  So what can Sirius XM do to regain more control with the current board of directors (who represent SIRI stockholders, not Liberty Capital (NASDAQ:SIRI)), which is the tracking stock being used to hold Liberty’s 40% stake in Sirius XM.  Is there an opening for another bidder?  Is there a war of control coming?  Do Sirius XM and Liberty’s intentions match?  For control, maybe not.  How would history view Mel Karmazin if he somehow managed to regain control of the company  from Liberty or was able to somehow introduce another party to drive the price up?  Does he have the tools necessary? 

Liberty is a big supporter of current management and seem content to keep only 2 board seats at this time.  They are allowed 6 of 15 seats maximum currently.  John Malone and Greg Maffei, and Flowers (3 Liberty Media members on the Sirius XM board) are not stupid.  They knew keeping current management maximized the company’s chances for success.  Also why ruin your underlying value of your holding by making bad business decisions or trying to fix something that isn’t broken?  Liberty counts the value of their holding as current conversion share quantity (if they converted today) times the current share price.  Right now Liberty is stating this value is around 4.7 billion dollars. 

But who does the Sirius XM board really represent?  No insider holds significant percentage amounts in the stock.  Option contracts awarded for no cost to the insider is not the same type of motivation one gets from an actual direct stock purchase (something no insider has done one since Mel Karmazin (CEO of Sirius XM) purchased 3 million shares in 2008 at $1.37 a share.  Any board member buy any shares?  No.  Officers of the company?  No.  Related parties?  No.  Did John Malone buy any shares?  No.  Greg Maffei?  No.  How many institutions are big block holders who own more than 4.5% of the company?  Zero.  So who is the board exactly representing?  Leon Black, long time board member since his Apollo Group loaned Sirius Satellite Radio money a few years back, did own 90 million shares through Apollo, but now they reportedly have sold over 60 million of those shares according to the latest filing.  So who on the board actually has a vested interest in protecting the stockholders?  By law, the board must act in the best interest of its stockholders.  Giving out bonus shares in December of 2008 on the verge of bankruptcy is one small example of the board possibly failing in this obligation.  Will there be others?  Maybe Mel Karamzin cares as a matter of personal pride.  He does own significant amounts of option contracts that I’m sure he’d rather exercise at a higher price than a lower one, but those were issued for free at a break even price of around .46 cents.  So Mel is already very rich from this deal.  Does anyone on the board actually care to get creative and even try to dilute Liberty’s control, or actually try to make it harder to acquire?  Mel Karmazin is the wild card here.  He has stated that he will make it as hard on Liberty as possible to gain further control.  He took the best deal on the table in February of 2009 that allowed him to stay in control.  I believe Mel Karamzin does want the SIRI common to succeed, and I don’t feel being owned by Liberty is benefiting the company in any way other than possible tax advice (Malone is considered a tax expert) in 2 years now.  The only thing Liberty owning 40% control has done has limited other potential buyers.  In fact Sirius XM lists Liberty’s ownership in their SEC annual report as a stock negative, citing how it could inhibit potential buyers and that Liberty’s interests might not be the same as Sirius XM’s.  There have been no monetary benefits or cash infusion of any kind by synergies or deals with anything else owned by Liberty Media.  LCAPA has offered no cash to supplement Sirius XM’s balance sheet. 

Mel gets some firepower back in a few months.  The poison pill does expire in August of this year and should allow the opportunity for a possible buyer, or large block accumulator or two to add significant amounts of control.  The expiration of the poison pill, I’m sure something Mel fought for to expire in negotiations with Liberty, might be the first weapon Mel obtains in this fight.  Basically now outside buyers are free to add shares with no dilutive effects.  What else is possible?

Here is one idea I have heard.  Sirius XM can reverse split the stock, increasing the authorized share amount percentage wise much higher than the current ratio of outstanding to authorize shares, hence allowing a post conversion dilution of Liberty’s shares.  This would be the only way to add to the authorized share count without Liberty’s consent.  If a reverse split is on the table when Liberty converts, Mel can sell to a trusted party, or parties, board members, or institutions friendly to his control, and dilute Liberty’s stake to well under 30% or less if a high enough reverse split is enacted.  Only one problem with this.  Liberty can vote down any reverse split votes and will (Liberty does not want a reverse split option on the board) as it prevents a conversion.  Mel could reverse split right now until June 28th without Liberty’s approval, but would have no benefit in doing so until Liberty actually converted.  Mel’s time table for the reverse split option is running out.  As this year’s proxy statement is due in about a month, we will know soon if the r/s vote is being extended or not.  If so, and Liberty votes it down, we would have our first visible conflict between the parties.  Liberty had to agree to extend the reverse split option in June of 2010 because of delisting concerns, and as protection to the value of their holding.  If delisting is off the table, so is Liberty’s support for a r/s.  Liberty wants the stock to appreciate naturally, with full share count in tact.   With a zero dollar buy in price, why not right?  There is one more way I can think of the board can reduce the amount of control Liberty has to a buy out offer.  You can weaken their leveraged ability and value of their Sirius XM holding.  How?  By buying back shares on the open market.

How is the possible you say?  Liberty cannot prevent Sirius XM from using its cash on hand to buy back shares.  Liberty can also not prevent Sirius XM from refinancing debt either, which could also free up cash to buy back shares.  What Sirius XM cannot do without Liberty’s approval is take on debt to buy back shares.  But will they buy back shares?  Sound crazy?  Not really.  Mel has been threatening to do this since at least the last 3 conference calls.  There are no current debt covenants preventing this.  He has also stated in the latest conference call a desire to stay debt to ebitda leveraged at 3 to 1, or a 3 rating.  They are currently a tad over 4.  So if you remove the 200 million due in 2011, and assume the 2014 bonds are converting to shares in the 2013 to 2014 time frame, you’re really left with in or around 2014 an almost 2.2 debt ratio using 1 billion EBITDA.  That will probably be too low in 2014.  That is very conservative estimate of EBITDA.  This would open the door for Mel to take on bonds and new money for the sole purpose of reducing the outstanding share count.  Since Mel may not be allowed by Liberty to go into debt to buy back shares, nothing prevents Sirius XM from refinancing debt due sooner and using cash on hand instead of buying back the bonds, to buy back shares. 

How does this weaken Liberty?  It doesn’t necessarily, but it can in theory only.  Where the stock price goes after the buy back would be crucial.  Since for every 1 share in the outstanding count Sirius XM has, .4 shares needs to be set aside for Liberty Media in case of a conversion.  So by buying back 1 share from the float, you would reduce the outstanding share count by 1.4 shares.  With a static stock price, this reduces the total value of LCAPA’s holding.  This greatly improves your p/e ratio and earnings per share as well.  It’s a win win for stockholders.  No value in it at all for Liberty Media.  Best case scenario is it evens out.  The stock would need to appreciate proportionally because you have changed the equation.  You reduce Liberty’s shares being held for conversion, making it a little easier possibly for a third party buyer to bully Liberty out of the picture with a high tender offer.  Since Liberty may not have as much leverage from the total value of their holding anymore, this could weaken their position to over pay for remaining control of the company.  Of course if the stock price takes off even more than the reduced number of theoretical converted shares at any point in time, because of maybe simply announcing a buy back, it would still be a win win for Sirius XM stockholders, as they gained value versus previous levels and have the same amount of shares in hand.  The other way, it not being reflected 100% in the appreciation of the stock, helps allow a new buyer to enter.  As of right now, approximately 2.6 billion shares are set aside and untouched in case Liberty converts.  Sirius XM has a total of 3.361 billion shares set aside for all reasons.  If you add this to the float, you come up with around 6.5 billion shares outstanding.  2.56 billion shares Liberty would have if they converted today.   This of course including stocks for option plans, warrants, and of course the 3.9 billion shares in the float.

So as you can see, between now and March of 2012 should be very interesting and revealing in what is going to happen.  I expect Liberty to add board seats this year or next.  There could very well be situations and possibilities other than discussed here, and would be more than happy to have them shared. 

To continue this conversation and offer your own thoughts to like minded investors, please visit www.kingofalltrades.com/community.

Disclosure:  Long SIRI

57

What Is Sirius XM Radio’s Fair Value?

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By Relmor Demitrius

 

Greg Maffei

Greg Maffei

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) is offered many opinions of what their shares are actually worth.  It just depends on who you listen too.  There seems to be a vastly different view of just how much one should pay for this equity and ultimately what is their appropriate market cap.  If readers know my style, they know I do not work with subjectives or opinions.  I like cold hard facts when I tackle a problem.  The pulse of the investor community seems to be right now on trying to understand how an equity so obviously undervalued is still priced at $1 a share.  What is Sirius XM’s real fair value?  Well why waste a second longer, let us begin.

Without boring anyone on just how dangerous it is to attempt to use the stock market current price at any one time to try to determine actual retail sale value of a company and hence what one share is actually worth in reality (meaning if every share were to be purchased at one time, at what price could they buy the company) might offer a little insight.  Here is a good example of this from 2008.

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23

Sirius XM’s True Value Yet To Come

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By Relmor Demitrius

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) CEO Mel Karmazin is like a kid in a candy store these days.  He came to Sirius Satellite Radio in 2006 with the stated goal of combining the only 2 satellite radio companies, XM Satellite Radio was the other, into the vision its founder Martine Rothblatt envisioned in the first place:  One satellite radio company.  The FCC thought it knew better in the 90′s and awarded spectrum to two companies instead, even after insistence from Martine that it wouldn’t work with two companies. To him the concept simply only worked for one company, and 10 years later it turned out he was right.  With Sirius and XM both struggling to monetize billions invested due to competing costs associated with signing talent and OEM contracts, they finally merged into one company in July of 2008, after the longest merger delay in FCC history.  Regardless of the FCC’s attempts to sabotage these companies from day 1, Mel finally has his wish.  A combined satellite media giant to control and run with the efficiency it was always intended. 

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5

Liberty Pursuing Global Satellite Radio with Sirius XM Radio in the Mix

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As previously speculated in past articles, Liberty Media (NASDAQ: LCAPA, NASDAQ:LINTA) essentially confirmed they have plans in the works to take their satellite radio interests global recently.  Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei answered a question after his company’s 4th Quarter Conference Call regarding Worldspace (OTC: WRSPQ) and Liberty’s acquisition efforts aimed at Worldspace assets through Bankruptcy court.  Among his comments was a statement that Worldspace has L-Band spectrum licensing worldwide, and that they were looking for a creative way to monetize Sirius XM Radio,  converting their  shares in the company  is not an option they are likely to pursue at this time.  As a matter of fact, Mr. Maffei said that Board Chairman John Malone would be firmly against that option.

Looking at the broader picture, Liberty Media has an important connection in Europe through Liberty Global (NASDAQ:LBTYA, NASDAQ:LBTYB), which has dealt intensively with licensing and programming transmission regulations with many member countries of the European Union (EU).  With Worldspace having L-Band spectrum licensing globally, and both the XM infrastructure side of Sirius XM Radio and Worldspace having come from the same technologies, it’s not a big leap to speculate that the XM side of Sirius XM is a key part of the globalization planning.  Worldspace broadcasts in the 1467-1492 MHz frequency range of the “L” band, and Worldspace’s proprietary and patented technology is coincidentally used in each XM Radio receiver.  In fact, the Worldspace Global Content and Programming department used to provide approximately 10% of the original content music programming heard in America on XM Satellite Radio.

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