LCAPA Archive

11

Sirius XM, Liberty Media and DISH….Synergies Anyone? Part 1

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With the recent addition of Dish network(NASDAQ:DISH) executive Carl Vogel to the Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) Board, many are asking what is the fit. Vogel was one of Dish networks executive officers from 1994 until 1997, and served as President from 1995 until 1997 when he was a key member of the executive team that created and launched DISH Network in 1996. Upon reviewing recent acquisitions by DISH and Charlie Ergen, I came across the following pending acquisition, which I think is a much bigger deal than some have realized.

DISH Network to Purchase DBSD, Developer of U.S. Hybrid Communications System

ENGLEWOOD,
Colo., Feb. 1, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — DISH Network Corporation (Nasdaq: DISH)
announced today that it has entered into an agreement to acquire 100 percent of the equity of the reorganized DBSD North America, Inc., a hybrid satellite and terrestrial communications company, for approximately $1 billion subject to
certain adjustments, including interest accruing on DBSD North America’s existing debt.

DISH Network is also committing to provide a debtor-in-possession credit facility to DBSD North America in connection with filings under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The credit facility, which remains subject to approval by the Bankruptcy Court, will consist of a non-revolving, multiple draw term loan in the aggregate principal amount of $87.5 million. This transaction is to be completed upon satisfaction of certain conditions, including approval by the Federal Communications Commission and DBSD North America’s emergence from bankruptcy.

Last year ICO Global Communications and DBSD North America deployed Mobile Satellite Services and Satellite-Based Internet Connectivity for Relief Agencies for Haitian Rebuilding Efforts following the disastrous earthquake that occurred there.

Here is a copy of the press release:

RESTON, Va., Mar 08, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) — ICO Global Communications (Holdings) Limited (ICO) (NASDAQ:ICOG) and its subsidiary, DBSD North America, Inc., announced that they have deployed satellite-based communications terminals with Internet access for use by relief agencies in Haiti. The terminals, known as CFK-100s, operate in the 2GHz S-band, and can be used in both mobile and fixed environments. They were installed and activated on February 17 and are being provided as part of the relief efforts of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). Service is being provided through the G1 satellite, which was launched in April 2008.

The equipment and airtime are being provided free of charge under the terms of a 2007 Memorandum of Understanding between ICO, the ITU and the Commonwealth Business Council (CBC), which called for assistance, technology and airtime in response to natural disasters. Laptop computers and peripheral equipment are being provided for the project through a financial grant from the Hong-Kong-based RYTHM Foundation, the Corporate Social Responsibility arm of the QI Group, a member organization of the CBC. In addition, technical services to support the initiative were donated by Space Systems/Loral, manufacturer of the G1 satellite; Intelsat, a leading provider of fixed satellite services worldwide; and Hughes Network Systems, a provider of two-way satellite communications technology for the G1 satellite.

What could this mean to Sirius XM? Well, let’s start with the fact that Sirius XM is increasingly making its internet service more of a value. What does that have to do with DISH you say? DBSD is considered valuable because of its access to broadband spectrum. With increased spectrum some experts believe EchoStar and Dish Network which also has some spectrum of its own already in the mix will put DBSD and Dish together and create huge a 4G or LTE networks to support data and voice communication.

A key area of testing for DBSD post G1 satellite launch in 2009 was for two-way services which support a variety of mobile satellite devices. DBSD worked with Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), to develop a satellite communication protocol called EGAL (Enhanced Geosatellite AirLink), which could be easily implemented in standard Qualcomm cellular chipsets. The initial test calls made over the G1 satellite utilized a cellular handset that was equipped with EGAL software. Subsequent work during the alpha trials included demonstrations of handsets and wireless devices that can operate in both terrestrial and satellite modes in urban and rural areas showcasing the potential of mobile satellite services to further enhance today’s traditional mobile offerings and providing a path to commercialization of next generation mobile satellite services.

Additionally, In order to demonstrate the capabilities of the G1 satellite and the use of an Ancillary Terrestrial Component (ATC), DBSD developed a demonstration product that integrated the ability to deliver two way interactive services with content broadcast services. DBSD expanded its partners to include NBC Universal, Discovery Networks, MTV Networks and Cartoon Network to demonstrate a live mobile television service that is capable of delivering 10 to 15 channels of live television broadcast content to vehicles and mobile devices. The product tested is referred to as Mobile Interactive Media, or MIM.

As a concept product, MIM combines live mobile television, assisted navigation and two-way communications capabilities into a bundled package which takes advantage of strong la carte demand for these services in the automotive market. MIM was named “Best of the Best” at the 2009 International Consumer Electronics Show. Features of MIM include:

1) 10 – 15 channels of live television content from leading brands, offering a mix of news, entertainment and children’s programming

2) Assisted navigation

3) Communications capability for telematics and emergency messaging applications

In short, Sirius XM is now aligned with Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LINTA) and Dish Network. The combination will prove to be a powerhouse of the New Media market. There are synergies and leveraging capabilities with these three companies that bode extremely well for the future of new media and mobile infotainment. This does not even take into account Dish networks recent purchase of Blockbuster, but imagine the possibilities.

Disclosure: Long SIRI, No current holdings in LCAPA, DISH or Qualcomm

6

Sirius XM’s David Frear’s Candid Talk Fuels Speculation (NASDAQ:SIRI)

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By Relmor Demitrius –

On Thursday of last week, David Frear, CFO and Vice President of Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) presented at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Credit Conference.  What was expected as another boring non committal presentation about long already known facts, turned into a candid offering from a usually very close vested company.  Frear added some insight into their future, discussed metrics never before mentioned, and even offered some comments on current speculations.  He covered many topics during his brief 40 minute discussion and slide show.

Frear discussed the automotive industry in regards to their relationships, future plans, and current situation in general.  Sirius XM currently has around a 60% penetration rate in the OEM market.  They will now be oscillating between around 60% and 65% going forward.  This is actually the desired amount of penetration Sirius XM has been seeking.  With their current “smarter penetration” strategies some models will have only an option to install or not be available at all.  These had been traditionally low take rate promotional subscribers and Sirius XM has run numbers that suggest leaving the option from a few models is ideal.  That is an exciting achievement for this company.  They can actually say they have

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31

How Much of Sirius XM’s Success is Howard Stern?

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By Relmor Demitrius

Mel and Howard

Mel and Howard

There are many ways to identify and define success.  The same can be said about worth and value.  It is especially true when trying to apply these concepts to something intangible, as an artist or performer.  Take a talent like Howard Stern.  He’s not a hard asset that you can simply attach a known value to, or state exactly what he would mean to your company.  What is his actual value to Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI)?  When Greg Maffei (CEO of Liberty Media and Liberty Capital (NASDAQ:LCAPA) and 40% owners of Sirius XM, ask Mel Karmazin (CEO of Sirius XM) how much is Howard Stern worth to the company, what does he tell him?  This is the debate among bloggers to professional financial analysis that has been going on for years.  How do you evaluate Howard Stern’s actual value to the company?  He makes 100 million dollars a year, minus the cost to run his show.  Is he worth it?  Is he overpaid?  Is he underpaid?  Is he fairly paid?  How much of Sirius XM’s revenue can be attributed to him.  In this article I will go over the effect of signing Howard Stern to Sirius Satellite Radio and any effect overall he had on the satellite radio industry altogether.  First, let’s get some opinions out of the way.

Howard Stern is an amazing talent and still the best radio on radio.  No offense to Michael Savage fans, Rush Limbaugh, Opie and Anthony, or Larry King.  Whatever.  There is still no bigger celebrity in radio.  Rush is close, but I don’t think he even can match Howard still to this day.  Howard’s popularity may be waning but he is still the best.  That being said, let us leave the personal opinions and feelings at the door.

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57

What Is Sirius XM Radio’s Fair Value?

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By Relmor Demitrius

 

Greg Maffei

Greg Maffei

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) is offered many opinions of what their shares are actually worth.  It just depends on who you listen too.  There seems to be a vastly different view of just how much one should pay for this equity and ultimately what is their appropriate market cap.  If readers know my style, they know I do not work with subjectives or opinions.  I like cold hard facts when I tackle a problem.  The pulse of the investor community seems to be right now on trying to understand how an equity so obviously undervalued is still priced at $1 a share.  What is Sirius XM’s real fair value?  Well why waste a second longer, let us begin.

Without boring anyone on just how dangerous it is to attempt to use the stock market current price at any one time to try to determine actual retail sale value of a company and hence what one share is actually worth in reality (meaning if every share were to be purchased at one time, at what price could they buy the company) might offer a little insight.  Here is a good example of this from 2008.

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18

Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) Beats But Can’t Win

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Sirius XM By Steve Garcia

Today Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) CEO Mel Karmazin gave the company’s Q1 2010 results.  Among the metrics was a 1 cent positive earnings per share (EPS).  Karmazin also let it be known that as of last week’s numbers, Sirius XM had over 19 million subscribers already this year, with just a third of the 2nd quarter complete.  The company is also among the top 8% of NASDAQ stocks based on Market Cap.  Mel also let shareholders know that delisting fears and the specter of a reverse split to satisfy those fears was over.  Sirius XM has also been able to pay off some debt; and reduce interest expense to a less than 9 % unsecured rate on the most recent debt re finance. The company, which struggled after the merger approval in 2008; and nearly went bankrupt in early 2009, continues to report an astounding turnaround quarter after quarter since obtaining a short term, though costly loan from Liberty Media and John Malone. The short term financing was costly in that it resulted in Liberty Media obtaining 40% of the company through the loan agreement. Sirius XM repaid all outstanding balances from that short term loan in a very timely fashion.

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