By Relmor Demitrius

Greg Maffei

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) is offered many opinions of what their shares are actually worth.  It just depends on who you listen too.  There seems to be a vastly different view of just how much one should pay for this equity and ultimately what is their appropriate market cap.  If readers know my style, they know I do not work with subjectives or opinions.  I like cold hard facts when I tackle a problem.  The pulse of the investor community seems to be right now on trying to understand how an equity so obviously undervalued is still priced at $1 a share.  What is Sirius XM’s real fair value?  Well why waste a second longer, let us begin.

Without boring anyone on just how dangerous it is to attempt to use the stock market current price at any one time to try to determine actual retail sale value of a company and hence what one share is actually worth in reality (meaning if every share were to be purchased at one time, at what price could they buy the company) might offer a little insight.  Here is a good example of this from 2008. (more…)

By Relmor Demitrius

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) will be announcing its first quarter results before the bell on Tuesday, May 4th.  Investors will anxiously await to see if this is finally the quarter that Sirius XM breaks into fully adjusted positive earnings, and finally puts to bed the notion this stock will never see profits.  Free cash flow and EBTIDA are already a reality, and with an improving balance sheet and outlook profits are usually sure to follow.  Investors will be watching closely for EBITDA numbers, free cash flow, and any insight into future plans with Liberty Media.  The company had already released subscriber numbers, adding 171,000 net addition in Q1 of 2010.

Join King of All Trades for live conference call analysis as it happens in our chat room, or post in our forums for expert opinions, investor feedback, and great fact based discussions involving Sirius XM Radio. 

Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LINTA), which owns 40% of Sirius XM in its tracking stock Liberty Capital (NASDAQ:LCAPA) will be reporting on Thursday, May 6th.

Visit www.kingofalltrades.com for up to date financial news, technical analysis, and forum discussions on any investment or trade.

Disclosure:  Long SIRI

By Relmor Demitrius -

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) will announce their first quarter conference call results on Tuesday, May 4th.  Sirius XM usually reports on a Thursday and most recently the same day that Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LINTA) reports.  Liberty Media holds 40% of Sirius XM Radio in its tracking stock, Liberty Capital (NASDAQ:LCAPA).  Liberty Media is reporting on Thursday, May 6th.  It was assumed by many investors that Sirius XM would report on that day as well.  When the company announced last week that they were moving their expected date up two days, speculation sparked to assume a good quarter is forthcoming.  Let us look at the numbers and see if there is any reality to this hope.

Before we begin breaking down specific metrics, let us lay down some ground work for some assumptions, expectations, and logical reasoning on certain calculations.  Usually the best way to approach a company’s prospects for a given quarter is to look closely at their year to year results and ask yourself what’s changed since then.  So what’s changed from Q1 of 2009?  Alot. (more…)

By Relmor Demitrius

Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) issued a press release yesterday stating a return to subscriber growth from a 404,000 retail subscriber loss in the first quarter of 2009.  They had 171,000 net additions in Q1 of 2010.  They also stated a confirmation on guidance in revenue and EBITDA growth as on pace with estimates.  This means 20% growth in EBITDA and a high single digit growth in revenue is in play for this conference call coming up in May.  They must report by mid May according to their SEC filing requirements.

Based on this information S&P has reiterated its Hold rating on shares of Sirius XM.  S&P sees the 20% EBITDA growth and 7% growth in revenue as possibly conservative.  They see autos continue to rebound and this should bloster their subscriber numbers going forward.  S&P has been bullish the company since below 60 cents, yet hasn’t moved off its Hold rating. 

If you were to “Hold” on this stock any longer, it might be over $2 a share before these “market visonaries” get around to changing it to a buy. 

Janco Partners recently gave Sirius XM an upgrade to “Buy” and a price target move from 80 cents to $1.30.  This upgrade actually came before the press release from Sirius XM. 

These are the first reports and effects of the kind of quarter Sirius XM is expected to have.  Strong growth, steady revenue increases, and continued across the board cost cutting efforts are drawing a flame once again to shares.  Volume spiked strongly on the report, and shares rose from a close near 96 cents on Tuesday, to a high of 1.09 in AH late Wednesday.

Shares this morning in premarket have traded as high as 1.14 today, up over 5%.

Shares of Liberty Media’s tracking stock Liberty Capital (NASDAQ:LCAPA), which houses their 40% stake in Sirius XM was up modestly on Wednesday to $42.18.

Long SIRI

By Rick King -

Every few generations our culture finds new ways to define itself. Usually there is no stronger indicator of culture’s shifting winds than the music a generation listens to. The method in which a generation listens to its music defines it as well. Is it possible we are in the midst of exactly that? Another media revolution of transformation in the winds, from terrestrial radio and television broadcasters to satellite media?

The current population wants access to information everywhere and on demand.  Generation “Unlimited” has no concept of limitation.  They live in a world where information of every type is available at the speed of an electron in more forms than they can count.  Information and how it is channeled to a user permeates every aspect of business.  AM and FM Radio don’t work everywhere geographically so it’s fading.  Same thing for television, initially change came in the form of cable and now with continuing dominance by satellite media.

How many people still remember the world of no television?  Black and White television broadcast?  The days when AM radio was the mainstay of the American living room?  In every single instance of such change, critics denied the very possibility it could happen.  Emotions have always  run especially deep in American society when it comes to our music and how we listen to it. (more…)