NYSE:BBI Archive

3

Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI) Inc. Q1 Results Raises More Questions Than Answers

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BlockbusterBy Relmor Demitrius

Often times when a company is struggling there are two opposing views.  One person is looking for proof of failure, another person is looking for proof of life and sustainability.  Unfortunately after Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE:BBI) released their first quarter results last week neither would be convinced, yet a strong case can be made for both views.  If this sentence is ambiguous, Blockbusters numbers are just as much.

For every place they show signs of life, looming doubts remain, or continued losses grip everything in a base of reality.  For instance, they burned through less cash this Q1 than in 2009, yet they are still burning through cash.  Q1 is a cash heavy quarter, paying $45 million dollars to a payment to principle on outstanding debt, as well as interest payments on other notes.  So you can see reasons for the cash loss, but yet still there it is.  Operating income when your cash on hand is only $110 million being a negative of any kind is dangerous, and hence not surprising to once again see many warnings throughout the report of possible bankruptcy being an option.  Going through the numbers and comments from Jim Keyes and Tom Casey may be able to offer some clarification to these questions of viability.  As the company transitions into the digital age, the brick and mortar model strengthens with the closing of Hollywood Video, time seems to be all this company may need.  Will they get their before needing new capital?  Probably not, as they are attempting to dilute their stockholders by giving Class A stock for debt.

Total revenue for Q1 came in at 934 million, down from from 1.09 billion(Q1 of 2009).  They attributed this drop to a 7% drop in international sales, and the closing of weaker stores.  This revenue drop isn’t altogether surprising due to a lagging reaction to their transition to other cheaper forms of revenue streams, such as mail order and kiosk sales, as well as on demand revenue, which did see an increase year over year.  Revenue for Q2 should be down to flat from these numbers.

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1

Changes on the Board of Directors Might Be Beneficial to Blockbuster Inc.

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By Relmor Demitrius -

After a controversial and disappointing run on the Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI) board of directors, Carl Icahn has removed himself from the board and sold off all this shares.  Also, a large block stockholder so worried about the state of his company has filed a proxy to join the board of directors, which will be voted on at the stockholder meeting in May.

I realize that some investors and media types could look at Icahn selling out of Blockbuster as bad news, I however see it as good news.  I have rarely witnessed Icahn increase shareholder value in 3 years.  As anyone can witness lately Icahn’s involvement with a company does not guarantee its success.  Lately, it appears to guarantee the price drops.  I believe Icahn adds no value to a company, in fact, his removing himself from a company actually adds value back into it.  His dealings and disasters in Blockbuster, Yahoo, and Biogen make him no Warren Buffet.  I personally would probably run from a stock if I heard the out of touch, none magic man Icahn wanted in.  I think whatever influence or magic touch or good ideas he had has long dried up.  I think there is a nice beach somewhere waiting for Mr. Icahn somewhere, and he should go enjoy it.  What Blockbuster needs possibly now that a skeleton has been removed from Blockbusters closet (pun fully intended) is some new blood.

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12

Blockbuster May One Day Be Forced To Sue Netflix for Anti-trust Violations

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By Relmor Demitrius

 

It might be hard for some people to imagine Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) as the big bad bully in the entertainment distribution market, especially when you consider the once retail superpower Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE:BBI) as the victim.   In the new digital age, court rooms and laws have to evolve as fast as the industries they cover.  There are more grey areas in technology based anti-trust laws than teenage fans of the new Twilight Movie release.  

When you dominate an industry, and then are late to the party on the digital age, you really only have yourself to blame.  With a new CEO and a very warranted sense of urgency Blockbuster is making this game of catch up very interesting.  As Blockbuster seeks to move in this direction, and indeed they have made great strides in that area, they might find the path a little more difficult than Netflix had it.  Should one company dominate the On Demand Video distribution business?  Not if customers want quality and pricing to remain affordable.  Blockbuster does have some leverage though with exclusive same day of release distribution capabilities for many new movies, they can offer the game system manufacturers something more;ie more bang for the buck.

Rarely, does one company dominating an industry provide better overall quality than  two companies competing for that same market share.  Would Intel (NASDAQ:INTL) chips be as fast and affordable today without AMD (NYSE:AMD) pushing them?  Of course not.  Would McDonalds only charge $1 for a McDouble if Wendy’s didn’t have a dollar menu too?  I think the answers here are obvious, and lessons learned in other industries shouldn’t be ignored.  Am I claiming Netflix is in violation of anti-trust laws?  Not at all.  That is actually the furthest thing from what I am saying here.  But lessons learned can be applied here.  I mean Netflix is just a company like any other.  They have stockholders to satisfy too.  If Blockbuster approached Sony, Nintendo or Microsoft for their XBOX 360 device, and proposed an agreement to be available on any of their devices as an alternative download method for digital entertainment, and Netflix said if you don’t do that, we will give you a percentage revenue share of all profits, there could be a line being crossed.   This is just one very hypothetical future scenario Blockbuster could be in, or for all we know already is facing right now.

For instance, when a company was thinking about going with an AMD products versus Intel, Intel was accused of offering pricing AMD could not compete with, even at a loss to them, on top of kick back rebates for simply buying Intel products, and for not switching.  There are other nuances to this dispute and settlement, but that is the basic concept Intel was accused of, and in fact settled with AMD for over 1 billion dollars.  This was considered an anti-trust violation by the courts.  Through legal avenues, options expanded for AMD where otherwise doors were closed.  Is it the end all of AMD’s problems?  Of course not, but the precedence by the court was set, and should help AMD’s penetration going forward.

The same could be possible for Blockbuster.  As their penetration with On Demand devices now includes a slew of home entertainment system products from Samsung (now including even Blu-Ray capabilities) and availability in Tivo devices as well, Blockbuster in 2009 entered into an area in which previously Netflix only had reigned.  Netflix famous inclusion in  gaming platforms is considered a legendary example of marketing genius and distribution.  Use it or not, on every XBOX 360 is the name Netflix with the ability to download movies directly to your TV through your device.  Mobile apps are now coming up from both companies as well.  The Iphone has a Netflix application and a Blockbuster application is available on the HTC H2 device from T Mobile.  Blockbuster also has a Motorola app in the works for select phones, as well as an application which will work with ARCHOS portable media players giving the user literally hundreds of choices.

Is there room for two distributors?  For consumers sake, I hope so.  If not, then maybe some day a court of law will have to make sure this will be the case.  For now there are avenues for Blockbuster to continue to expand their business model, without legal means being necessary.  Who knows, maybe in 2 years Blockbuster and Netflix may be on every new TV and digital recording device that comes out.  I think that would definitely be a huge win win situation for consumers.  Well have to see what the future holds.

Long BBI

4

Blockbuster Inc. Seeks To Move In a New Direction

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By Relmor Demitrius -

Video rental giant Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE:BBI) released its fourth quarter financial results in January of this year.  They showed declining year to year revenue and a large loss per share, although this was due mainly to a one time goodwill charge.  At a quick glance one might think twice about throwing money at this stock.  The results were not impressive to the street apparently.  The stock has been under pressure of late, but has rebounded nicely the last two days, rising from a low of 30 cents to over 39 cents as of Friday.  The stock was trading over 70 cents in January before S&P put them on credit watch after the company released Q4 numbers.

The company currently sits at a 48 million dollar market cap.  They only have 122 million shares, and a large percentage of them are insider owned.  The company reported 42 million in free cash flow during their fourth quarter.  These are a few of the basic reasons I am keeping an eye on this equity.  Yes they have a high cost basis, and declining revenue trends doesn’t sit well with investors, but anytime a market cap is presented this low on a once largely profitable company, that is now dominating the market share of an albeit fading business model, it definitely should be looked at closely.  If this company were to rebound, this stock is currently priced for a huge dilution, bankruptcy, or a hostile takeover attempt, large gains are on the board.  If these things can be avoided, and certain goals of management are seen to fruition, then there is a possible play here.   CEO Jim Keyes has been on a path of promoting change with the company, and trying to show to the street that the company is committed to lowering costs, and moving into the digital age of media distribution.  He thinks the brand name is strong and will aid them greatly in stealing market share from Netflix and Redbox.  It is possible that Blockbuster can credit some of their revenue losses on too many unprofitable stores and a down economy.  Blockbuster is currently in the process of cutting the fat on their bloated retail store numbers, and the economy seems to be improving.

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