By Relmor Demitrius

Greg Maffei

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) is offered many opinions of what their shares are actually worth.  It just depends on who you listen too.  There seems to be a vastly different view of just how much one should pay for this equity and ultimately what is their appropriate market cap.  If readers know my style, they know I do not work with subjectives or opinions.  I like cold hard facts when I tackle a problem.  The pulse of the investor community seems to be right now on trying to understand how an equity so obviously undervalued is still priced at $1 a share.  What is Sirius XM’s real fair value?  Well why waste a second longer, let us begin.

Without boring anyone on just how dangerous it is to attempt to use the stock market current price at any one time to try to determine actual retail sale value of a company and hence what one share is actually worth in reality (meaning if every share were to be purchased at one time, at what price could they buy the company) might offer a little insight.  Here is a good example of this from 2008. (more…)

Mel Karmazin

By Relmor Demitrius

After Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) released their 2nd quarter financial results in a conference call earlier this morning, Standard and Poors (S&P) Rating agency has revised their equity rating on Sirius XM Radio  from HOLD to BUY.  S&P also has a $1.50 price target on the equity.  This comes off the heels of a solid to excellent quarter from the company.  They had record revenue coming in at over $705 million and managed costs once again.  Despite huge jumps in auto sales versus last quarter and one year ago, costs still did not outdistance profits.  Sirius XM once again posted a profitable quarter, this time despite hefty one time charges related to paying off and refinancing certain debt notes, coming in at around 15 million dollars.  That beat

estimates of flat to a minor loss expected with actual results slightly to positive at almost .01 EPS. (more…)

By Relmor Demitrius

On Wednesday August 4th, Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) will be announcing its 2nd quarter financial results.  There conference call at 8 am eastern time will be covered live by Kingofalltrades.com.  King of All Trades will provide live chat analysis of the numbers as they come out.  Don’t miss the information as it comes in tomorrow morning. 

Sirius XM has already announced they have added over 580,000 subscribers for the 2nd quarter of 2010.  Investors and analysts will be looking closely at EBITDA, free cash flow, and operating income.  A few items that may be discussed is when they will be paying of their 2011 remaining debt with cash on hand and if they will up their EBITDA guidance for the full year 2010.  Analysts are expecting even to a small quarterly loss for Sirius XM in the 2nd quarter.  KOAT is expecting .01 cent basic earnings and even diluted earnings.  Click here for a full three part analysis of the companies upcoming 2nd quarter results.  http://www.kingofalltrades.com/2010/07/26/sirius-xm-2nd-quarter-earnings-preview-part-3/

For up to date financial news commentary/fundamental and technical analysis/live chat and forum discussions on all investments and trades, visit www.kingofalltrades.com.

Disclosure:  Long SIRI

By: Gino Lattarulo

In another bullish move, stock action on Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) has pushed through a daily triangle pattern that has been forming since May, further confirming the $1.00 support level.  We can also see that the price has moved back up through the 50 day Exponential Moving Average (red line)  while still maintaining a solid level above the 200 day Exponential Moving Average (purple line).  Of course, with earnings set to be released on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payroll report coming out on Friday,  the question will be whether the stock will maintain a bullish trajectory.  Personally I think it will.  I think everyone including the Wall Street bears can agree that the economy will probably not experience a double dip.  Siri stock has been in the habit of marching to the beat of its own drum anyway and hasn’t really been following the dramatic swings in the market. Also, data from the National Auto Dealers Association (NADA) states that U.S. auto sales from the likes of Ford (NYSE:F) Toyota (NYSE:TM) and GM are projecting a 5.3% increase over last year and we already know that the Sirius/XM subscriber base is exponentially increasing at a nice rate.

Unless there is some great surprise in the earnings report, the stock action should follow the usual course of a triangle pattern break-out, which is to immediately re-test support before continuing on an upward path.  The next resistance level is $ 1.10 and a weekly close above the $ 1.25 resistance will open the door fairly well to the $ 2.00 mark.  There is no doubt in my mind that $ 2.00 is on the horizon within a year.

That’s a bold statement I know, and I may regret saying it. But what the hell, I’ve regretted  a lot of things this year. Like thinking congress might actually be mature enough to work together on this train wreck of an economy instead of flinging their own feces at each other like a bunch of chimpanzees.

By Relmor Demitrius

With Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) set to report their 2nd quarter financial results in less than one week now, investors are going over numbers, looking at data, and trying to determine how much upside this stock may have.  Well, apparently the majority of its institutional holders think there is more upside to be gained here.  According to the NASDAQ.com website (home to where Sirius XM trades) their institutional holding percentage is now 22.2%, which is up by 2% from just a month ago. 

As the stock broke out of penny stock territory and was added to the Russell family of indexes earlier this year, investors have been looking for signs from “smart money” to see if this bullish move is just starting or it is time to sell out and book gains.  It is difficult to evaluate a company like Sirius XM and there are many opinions out there as to its true value.  So anytime you see institutions adding shares of your company, it is not a bad thing.  These shares usually are held longer and do not see as much float action as retail shares may.  Typically institutions take into consideration what stocks they buy with use of careful planning, painstaking fundamental analysis of the company, and timing proper entry positions.  This percentage isn’t even taking into account all the shares now off the board held by the Russell index and its shadow funds.  Those shares would not have been reported into this percentage as of yet.  It is a lagging count of ownership levels, but still can show trends and be useful in determining institutional sentiment over time. 

People debate how much institutional ownership is good for a stock.  Some people prefer stocks with high retail ownership, as they usually offer more volatility.  What percentage do you think is ideal for your trading/investment strategies in Sirius XM?