XM Archive

6

Sirius XM Radio Gets A Lift From Moody’s

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SatRadioBy Relmor Demitrius

Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) Corporate Family Rating (CFR) from Moody’s Investors Service was upgraded today.  They moved their CFR from Caa1 to B3. Moody’s also upgraded their probability of default from B3 to B2, and upgraded several individual instruments as well, including today’s new 550 million dollar notes.

Today Sirius XM announced a new debt offering, which is why Moody’s is commenting today.  They are issuing 550 million dollars worth of new debt to remove their 11.25% senior secure notes due in 2013, which is on the XM side of the ledger.  Moody’s assigned a rating of B3 to these proposed notes, due to maturity in 2018.  This would allow the company more freedom to make decisions beneficial to stockholders, rather than debt holders.  Removing debt covenants is important to allow the board 100% freedom to do what is in the best interest of the stockholder and the company in general.  With moving debt out more evenly, Moody’s recognizes the risk of default drops dramatically.  Also the type of debt is unsecured, which improves their overall corporate credit outlook.

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4

Sirius XM Set To Add Subscribers Again in 3rd Quarter

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By Relmor Demitrius

SatRadio

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) is set to release their Q3 subscriber net additions as early as next week.  Mel Karmazin (CEO of Sirius XM Radio) likes to let investors know how they faired in regards to subscriber numbers as close to the end of the quarter as possible, because these numbers are known relatively quickly once the quarter is closing.  Due to improving auto sales and improving economic conditions, Sirius XM has been steadily adding subscribers since Q3 of 2009.

Sirius XM added 583,000 in the second quarter of 2010.  As long as the Seasonally Adjusted Automobile Rate comes in over 11 million a year, Mel Karmazin has stated that the company will be able to add subscribers with current metrics.  As of today, the latest estimate of  SAAR is coming in around 11.6 million area, some have it a bit higher, others a bit lower.  Knowing this, let us look at what the subscriber net additions will be like for the company in Q3.

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7

What’s Next For Howard Stern and Sirius XM Radio

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By Relmor Demitrius -

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Howard Stern will soon announce his plans for beyond 2010.  His current five year, 100 million dollar per year contract with Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) will expire on December 31st, 2010.  Will he re-sign with the company that made him the highest paid radio or television performer in history or will he part ways?  His comments so far seem to indicate he is indeed staying.  Regardless of his decision, it is important to explore and weigh his options from his point of view and from Sirius XM’s.  Is any decision or path disastrous or a huge negative for either party?  Are there options best suited for both?  Here are the most logical choices and scenarios.  With each choice comes with its own set of consequences and effects for both parties.

The most obvious outcome is Howard gets his way and works less hours. He will probably try to work less hours while making the same salary as his current contract.  Since he got four days a week last time, I think this time he tries for three.  Current comments he has made in the last few months on air seem to indicate he is at least contemplating a three day work week.  What would happen if he re-signed and worked less days? His fans would care and the show would suffer.  Just too much away time.  Now this cast of characters is away from each other more than together.  Four days off, three days on.  If Mel Karmazin (CEO of Sirius XM Radio) allows this to occur, expect his audience to drop off even more.  Now you’re asking your fan base to “go find other entertainment” two days out of the work week rather than one.  Already he is away a lot of the time.  Jim Rome works 5 days a week.  Rush Limbaugh works a full week.  Michael Savage clocks in to put out a show every day.  Howard Stern apparently doesn’t feel it is necessary.  He is special.  That’s fine.  His listeners will learn to do without him more and more.  This is a positive for the company, as it directs frustration and malaise toward Howard and his show, and none at Sirius XM or management.  This scenario overall would be beneficial to the company but not ideal short term.  I think Mel gets some degree of a salary drop out of Howard if he wants to work less time.  He may also even let him start the show an hour later, as well.  Another huge mistake by Howard and disappointing to his fans.  It is a morning show after all on the east coast.  Half the country will be at lunch when the show is finally getting going.  This once again would direct frustration at Howard and not the service.

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5

Goldman Sachs Communacopia XXIII, Liberty Media Presentation, Greg Maffei speaker, and his comments about SiriusXM Radio.

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By Relmor Demitrius

On September 15th, 2009, Greg Maffei of Liberty Media Corporation presented at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia in New York. Not much fanfare came from this presentation from Maffei for Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) investors, but maybe that was an oversight. Lost in the more seemingly important Liberty Investors Conference this month, and Sirius XM Radio’s own conference call coming very shortly, one might have missed some interesting and fascinating comments from one of the more powerful and important influences on Sirius XM, Greg Maffei. In case anyone is wondering who Greg Maffei is, a quick look into his past accomplishments and credentials is in order before going forward.

Greg Maffei is currently the President and CEO of all three Liberty Holding Companies, Liberty Capital (LCAPB), Liberty Entertainment (LMDIA), and Liberty Interactive (LINTA).

Liberty Capital includes Liberty’s holdings in Sirius XM Radio (SIRI), Viacom (VIA), Time/Warner (TWX), and Sprint Nextel (S).

Liberty Entertainment is where DIRECTV is held.

Liberty Interactive is where they hold QVC and a lot of their internet companies.

Greg Maffei discussed all of Liberty’s divisions during his presentation, but the commonality in all of Liberty’s interests is Greg Maffei himself and his background is truly impressive.

Maffei is currently on boards with Electronic Arts, DIRECTV, and Sirius XM Radio.  He has held the  position of Chief Finance Officer at Oracle, Chairman and CEO of 360 Networks, and a CFO of Microsoft as well. His resume is extensive, having been involved with many industry leaders in the past. This man has attached

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